World of Uncertainty

我们想开发并测试一个教育性的电脑游戏，让决策者学习如何处理不确定性，通过体验一个不确定的世界，并明确地估计这个世界中的不确定性，他们可以培养在不确定条件下做出决策所需的技能和态度，而不是试图消除问题中的不确定性。决策者、记者和公众经常从相互矛盾的角度讨论科学问题（例如，全球变暖是/不是一种威胁）。在简化科学的过程中，所有的不确定性都被从这些叙述中消除了。我们相信故事的本能会扭曲我们的决定。这就是为什么公关和旋转可以如此成功。这不是一个用统计数字撒谎的例子，但叙述性谎言比统计数字更容易理解。但在这个世界里，与碟形世界不同，百万分之一的机会不会十有八九发生。事实比虚构的故事更离奇。那么，我们如何让更多的人参与决策，了解不确定性？与其试图消除不确定性，不如教他们如何探索不确定性，以博彩公司或专业赌徒的沉着冷静来处理它。如果我们能让决策者和公众更好地理解不确定性，让向他们汇报的科学家更好地理解故事，那么我们就有机会弥合这种理解上的差距。有一个领域线性叙事并不占主导地位：电脑游戏。与电影、书籍甚至电视科学纪录片不同，电脑游戏并不遵循单一的叙事线索。相反，玩家在游戏中根据自己的决定和行动创造自己的故事，我们将构建一个原型电脑游戏，在这个游戏中，一个受训的决策者可以探索不确定的数据，估计她的不确定性有多大，并获得关于她处理不确定性的反馈。想象一下，在一个游戏中，兽医学生可以探索在对流行病做出决定时的不确定性，无论是BSE，口蹄疫还是禽流感。游戏中有一个不确定性引擎，它处理的数学评分不是让玩家得到正确的答案，而是正确地估计他们的不确定性。然后我们测量这个游戏对学习者群体的影响，看看他们是否能提高他们处理不确定性的技能，以及他们对科学不确定性的理解。如果成功的话，这可能是一种新型教育游戏的模式。

We want to build and test an educational computer game in which decision-makers can learn how to handle uncertainty.By experiencing a world of uncertainty, and by explicitly estimating uncertainty in that world, they can develop the skills and attitudes needed to make decisions under uncertain conditions, instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty from the problem. Too often, decision-makers, journalists and members of the public discuss scientific issues in terms of competing stories (e.g. global warming is/is not a threat). In simplifying the science, all uncertainty has been removed from these narratives. Decisions can be distorted by our natural instinct to believe in stories. That is why PR and spin can be so successful. It isn't a case of lying with statistics, but the narrative lie is better understood than the statistics. But in this world, unlike the Discworld, million-to-one chances do not happen nine times out of ten. Truth is stranger than fiction.So how can we get more people involved in decision-making to understand uncertainty? Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, lets teach them how to explore uncertainty, handling it with the aplomb of a bookmaker or professional gambler. If we can get decision-makers and the public to better understand uncertainty, and scientists reporting to them to better understand stories, then we stand a chance of bridging this gap in understanding.There is one space where linear narrative does not dominate: the computer game. Unlike films, books, or even TV science documentaries, a computer game does not follow a single narrative thread. Instead the player creates his or her own narratives as a result of his or her decisions and actions while playing.We will build a prototype computer game in which a trainee decision-maker can explore uncertain data, make estimates of how uncertain she is, and get feedback on how well she handles the uncertainty. Imagine a game in which veterinary students can explore the uncertainties in making decisions about an epidemic, be it BSE, foot and mouth, or bird 'flu. Inside the game will be an uncertainty engine, which handles the mathematics of scoring players not on getting answers right, but correctly estimating how uncertain they are.Then we measure the effects this game has on groups of learners, to see if they can improve their skills in handling uncertainty, and their understanding of scientific uncertainty. If it works, this could be the model for a new kind of educational game.