Cyber Systems: Collaborative Research: Complex Systems Dynamics of Blackouts and Transmission Upgrades

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NSF proposals 0605848 and 0606003The objective of this research is to understand how the risk of blackouts is affected by the evolution of the nations high voltage electrical power transmission grid. The electrical grid evolves by means of engineering upgrades such as new transmission lines or operational policies. The upgrades are done in response to avoiding blackouts and to increasing electricity usage while containing costs. These forces drive complex dynamics that are thought to strongly influence blackout risk. The approach is to develop models of these complex dynamics at various levels of detail in order to investigate how different choices in the upgrade of the grid can affect blackout risk.The intellectual merit is that power grids are very large and complicated engineered systems and understanding how these networks evolve is a scientific challenge involving a combination of engineering, probability, statistical physics and computer simulation. The research will advance the basic understanding of complex engineered systems in the context of the electrical grid that underpins our society. The broader impact is that the expected outcome of the project is better risk analysis of major blackouts and the potential of determining which upgrades or operational policies can best manage the risk of blackouts. The research will also start to examine the theory of interactions between networked infrastructures, as, for example, when power blackouts interact with interruptions to communications. The research will help to educate interdisciplinary students, including some underrepresented groups, and the results will be communicated to a range of engineering, scientific and general audiences.