Collaborative Research: Criticality, complex dynamics and cascading events in power system blackouts and communication networks

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Large scale utility electrical power transmission systems such as the power system of the Western United States can and do suffer cascading events leading to widespread blackouts. These blackouts severely impact the public, commerce, and government and are a vulnerability in the nation's infrastructure. Rather than focusing on the detailed causes of individual blackouts, this project addresses the global, complex system dynamics of a long series of blackouts. New models, simulation and analysis methods will be developed to capture the essentials of criticality, self-organization and cascading failure. Particular attention will be given to the power tails of probability distributions of blackout sizes that occur in North American blackout data and generally in systems at criticality. These power tails imply that large, catastrophic blackouts are much more likely than predicted by conventional risk analyses. The project will develop new risk analysis methods and explore operating techniques to mitigate the risks of major blackouts. Communication networks such as the Internet also develop major cascading disruptions and work will also be pursued in this application to maintain some focus on universal features of disruptions in large, engineered networks of societal importance. The expected outcomes are the ability to understand, statistically analyze and to some extent mitigate major cascading disruptions in power transmission and communication networks. The scientific outcomes are an improved understanding and new application of complex system dynamics to the engineering and analysis of stressed networks. Educational outcomes include the training of undergraduate and graduate students in a multidisciplinary team.