DHB Collaborative Research: Human Decision Making Dynamics and its Impact on Infrastructure Systems

DHB 协作研究：人类决策动态及其对基础设施系统的影响

• 批准号: 0624361
• 负责人: David Newman
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-11-15 至 2010-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0624361&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DHB; Collaborative; Research; Human; Decision

Modern socioeconomic systems depend critically on communications and power distribution network infrastructures. When these infrastructures are vulnerable, so is society as a whole. Both the social and the engineered infrastructural systems are complex in their own right and since the systems are interconnected (coupled), the combined system is even more complex. Much of the complexity stems from the humans. Infrastructural failures are often studied primarily as technical engineering matters, missing the human element. Understanding the dynamics and vulnerabilities of these coupled systems is becoming more important as the degree of coupling increases and as they are put under increasing stress. As this occurs, there is a concomitant increase in the flow of information, which can make the human element even more significant.To advance understanding of the dynamics in human/infrastructure systems: 1. We will investigate the dynamics of an integrated system comprised of power networks, communication networks, and a dynamic model of social interactions with these other infrastructure systems. This will build on previous work on the complex system dynamics of the individual power transmission networks, communication networks and human decision-making systems. 2. Simultaneously, we will develop a hierarchy of simple models to represent the key human reaction and decision-making dynamics identified in the observations of the real systems. These will be coupled to models of the complex engineering infrastructure. 3. Finally we will develop tools to analyze the real systems and to quantify and predict regimes of behavior, both to understand the real systems and to assess the validity of our models. Coupled system behavior is of basic scientific interest as a problem in complex systems dynamics. Complementing the scientific goal of improving understanding of coupled system behavior is the practical goal of developing predictive models of these systems, since their dynamics have major implications for society as a whole. The improvement in basic understanding will allow for improved risk analysis as well as the development of operational techniques to reduce the risks of major disruptions to the infrastructure.

现代社会经济系统严重依赖于通信和配电网络基础设施。 当这些基础设施脆弱时，整个社会也是如此。社会和工程基础设施系统本身都是复杂的，由于这些系统是相互连接的（耦合的），因此组合系统更加复杂。大部分的复杂性源于人类。非线性结构故障通常主要作为技术工程问题进行研究，而忽略了人为因素。随着耦合程度的增加和压力的增加，了解这些耦合系统的动态和脆弱性变得越来越重要。随着这种情况的发生，信息流也随之增加，这使得人的因素变得更加重要。为了促进对人/基础设施系统动态的理解：1.我们将研究由电力网络、通信网络以及与这些其他基础设施系统的社会互动的动态模型组成的综合系统的动态。这将建立在以前的工作上的复杂系统动力学的个人电力传输网络，通信网络和人类决策系统。2.同时，我们将开发一个简单模型的层次结构，以表示在真实的系统的观察中确定的关键人类反应和决策动态。 这些将与复杂的工程基础设施模型相结合。3.最后，我们将开发工具来分析真实的系统，并量化和预测行为的制度，既要了解真实的系统，并评估我们的模型的有效性。耦合系统行为是复杂系统动力学中的一个基本科学问题。 为了补充提高对耦合系统行为的理解的科学目标，开发这些系统的预测模型的实际目标是，因为它们的动态对整个社会有重大影响。基本认识的提高将有助于改进风险分析，并发展业务技术，以减少基础设施遭受重大破坏的风险。