权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Forecasting and Inventory Management: Bridging the Gap

预测和库存管理：弥合差距

基本信息

批准号：
EP/F012632/1
负责人：
Argyrios Syntetos
金额：
$ 6.4万
依托单位：
University of Salford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2007 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FF012632%2F1
关键词：
Forecasting Inventory Management Bridging Gap

项目摘要

The aim of this project is to bring together the strengths of statistical and judgemental forecasting with the complementary benefits of System Dynamics (SD), to initiate a new research agenda for inventory modelling. Currently, the Operational Research (OR) and Industrial Engineering (IE) disciplines are very fragmented, as shown by the different conferences (and corresponding audiences) organized by different societies (eg, SD, Forecasting, Inventories Research) that in turn produce different journals, with inadequate cross-referencing. Consequently, these sub-disciplines have grown into disciplines in their own right, prohibiting a constructive exchange of ideas for the benefit of solving problems of common interest. There is great scope for the cross-utilization of the modelling approaches employed by these disciplines, to develop more effective computerized solutions and to educate modellers and decision-makers. In particular, it is viewed as imperative to bring together their complementary strengths in order to solve complex inventory problems, an example of which is the 'Bullwhip effect' (i.e. of magnifying inventories as we move backwards in a supply chain). These complex problems demonstrate the industrial importance of inventory management and the considerable benefit that their solution may offer to modern organizations. Such a solution necessitates novel inter-disciplinary approaches to problem formulation and modelling and this is the first proposal to provide them. Complex issues related to the interactions between statistical demand forecasting and stock control are currently being addressed in the first grant EP/D062942/1 EPSRC project led by Aris Syntetos. The enhancement of the current research portfolio will occur through the explicit consideration of SD and judgemental forecasting.

该项目的目的是将统计和判断预测的优势与系统动力学（SD）的互补优势结合起来，启动库存建模的新研究议程。目前，运筹学 (OR) 和工业工程 (IE) 学科非常分散，不同学会（例如 SD、预测、库存研究）组织的不同会议（和相应的受众）表明了这一点，而这些会议又产生了不同的期刊，交叉引用不足。因此，这些子学科本身已经发展成为学科，阻碍了为了解决共同关心的问题而进行建设性的思想交流。这些学科所采用的建模方法有很大的交叉利用空间，可以开发更有效的计算机化解决方案并教育建模者和决策者。特别是，为了解决复杂的库存问题，必须结合它们的互补优势，其中一个例子是“牛鞭效应”（即当我们在供应链中倒退时放大库存）。这些复杂的问题证明了库存管理的行业重要性以及其解决方案可以为现代组织带来的巨大好处。这样的解决方案需要新颖的跨学科方法来制定问题和建模，这是第一个提供这些方法的提案。由 Aris Syntetos 领导的第一笔拨款 EP/D062942/1 EPSRC 项目目前正在解决与统计需求预测和库存控制之间相互作用相关的复杂问题。当前研究组合的增强将通过明确考虑 SD 和判断性预测来实现。