Forecasting and Inventory Management: Bridging the Gap

该项目的目的是将统计和判断预测的优势与系统动力学（SD）的互补优势结合起来，启动库存建模的新研究议程。目前，运筹学（OR）和工业工程（IE）学科非常分散，不同学会组织的不同会议（和相应的受众）（例如，SD，预测，库存研究）反过来产生不同的期刊，缺乏充分的交叉参考。因此，这些分支学科已经发展成为独立的学科，禁止为解决共同感兴趣的问题而进行建设性的思想交流。这些学科所采用的建模方法有很大的交叉利用空间，可以开发更有效的计算机化解决方案，并教育建模者和决策者。特别是，为了解决复杂的库存问题，将它们的互补优势结合起来被视为势在必行，其中一个例子是“牛鞭效应”（即当我们在供应链中向后移动时放大库存）。这些复杂的问题证明了库存管理的工业重要性，以及它们的解决方案可能为现代组织提供的可观利益。这样的解决方案需要新的跨学科方法来提出问题和建模，这是第一个提供这些方法的建议。由Aris Syntetos领导的EPSRC第一笔拨款EP/D062942/1项目目前正在解决与统计需求预测和库存控制之间相互作用有关的复杂问题。通过明确考虑可持续发展和判断预测，将增强当前的研究组合。

The aim of this project is to bring together the strengths of statistical and judgemental forecasting with the complementary benefits of System Dynamics (SD), to initiate a new research agenda for inventory modelling. Currently, the Operational Research (OR) and Industrial Engineering (IE) disciplines are very fragmented, as shown by the different conferences (and corresponding audiences) organized by different societies (eg, SD, Forecasting, Inventories Research) that in turn produce different journals, with inadequate cross-referencing. Consequently, these sub-disciplines have grown into disciplines in their own right, prohibiting a constructive exchange of ideas for the benefit of solving problems of common interest. There is great scope for the cross-utilization of the modelling approaches employed by these disciplines, to develop more effective computerized solutions and to educate modellers and decision-makers. In particular, it is viewed as imperative to bring together their complementary strengths in order to solve complex inventory problems, an example of which is the 'Bullwhip effect' (i.e. of magnifying inventories as we move backwards in a supply chain). These complex problems demonstrate the industrial importance of inventory management and the considerable benefit that their solution may offer to modern organizations. Such a solution necessitates novel inter-disciplinary approaches to problem formulation and modelling and this is the first proposal to provide them. Complex issues related to the interactions between statistical demand forecasting and stock control are currently being addressed in the first grant EP/D062942/1 EPSRC project led by Aris Syntetos. The enhancement of the current research portfolio will occur through the explicit consideration of SD and judgemental forecasting.