Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

我们将开发一个基于证据的层次化的时态模型框架家族 和空间传播的两种直接传播的农场动物感染：禽流感(Al)和足部和 口腔疾病(口蹄疫)关于疾病系统的建模，我们将创建局部(在 羊群/羊群)、县、州和国家模式的铝和口蹄疫。世袭战略之所以重要，是因为 更简单的模型可以更快地完成，并且更容易进行参数化，因此 有可能比更复杂的机型更适合使用。他们的行为可以更容易地 推广到其他系统，并可在战略(如果不是战术)意义上为应对措施提供信息。这个 更复杂的模型是基本的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成，他们的 行为可能不会那么容易被概括为其他感染。我们的建议是一种折衷方案 在提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息的需要与 要求我们能够为有关预防、应对和恢复的战术决策提供信息。除其他外， 我们将研究每个模型的适当的粒度(比例)级别。确实有 美国很少有地区将农场位置映射到大多数现有类型所需的详细程度 国家或国家尺度的空间和时间扩散模型。我们将设计出模型 (元人口/斑块/重力模型)基于其他空间分辨率(例如基于邮政编码的数据， 县，或国家电网系统)。我们将使用详细的空间来测试和校准这些近似值 使用详细和广泛的地理信息系统数据库开发的关于宾夕法尼亚州农场位置的随机模型 然后将它们的使用推广到美国的其他地区。我们将使用这些模型来设计和改进 预防、应对和恢复战略。 禽流感和口蹄疫是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在病原体，除了 毁灭性的动物疫病本身对人类健康有巨大的不利影响 人类人口的福祉(社会、经济和心理)。这里提出的模型将有助于 在规划预防、控制和应对战略方面。尤其在禽流感的情况下， 控制禽类感染是一种先发制人的控制策略。

We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD. With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The heirarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (eg data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psycholgical) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.