Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

我们将开发一个以证据为基础的层次家庭的范式模型框架的时间 两种直接传播的农场动物感染：禽流感（Al）和口蹄疫， 口腔疾病（FMD）关于疾病系统建模，我们将创建本地（内部） 畜群/羊群）、县、州和国家禽流感和口蹄疫模型。层级战略很重要，因为 更简单的模型可以更快地完成，更容易地参数化，因此更 可能比更复杂的模型更容易使用。他们的行为更容易被 一般化到其他系统，并可为战略（如果不是战术）意义上的应对措施提供信息。的 更复杂的模型是必不可少的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成， 行为可能不那么容易推广到其他感染。我们的建议是一种妥协 需要提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息， 我们需要能够为有关预防、应对和恢复的战术决策提供信息。除其他 我们将研究这些模型中每一个的适当粒度级别（规模）。有 在美国的一些地区，农场的位置被映射到大多数现有类型所需的详细程度 在州或国家范围内的空间和时间传播模型。我们将设计模型 （集合种群/斑块/重力模型）基于其他空间分辨率（例如基于邮政编码的数据， 国家电网或国家电网）。我们将测试和校准这些近似使用详细的空间 随机模型开发使用详细和广泛的地理信息系统数据库在宾夕法尼亚州的农场位置 然后将其推广到美国其他地区。我们将利用这些模型来设计和完善 预防、应对和恢复战略。 禽流感和口蹄疫是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在因素， 毁灭性的动物流行病本身就对人类产生了巨大的不利影响， 人类的福祉（社会、经济和心理）。这里提出的模型将有助于 制定预防、控制和应对战略。尤其是禽流感， 控制禽类感染是控制人类感染的一种先发制人的策略。

We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD. With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The heirarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (eg data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psycholgical) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.