Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

时空动态的分层模型*

• 批准号: 7339821
• 负责人: Gary Smith
• 金额: $ 31.5万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-02-01 至 2011-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7339821
• 关键词: Accounting; Adverse effects; Animals; Avian Influenza; Behavior; Birds; Businesses; Cattle; Commerce; County; Data; Databases; Deer; Disease; Disease model; Domestic Fowls; Economics; End Point; Epidemic; Family; Family suidae; Farming environment; Foot-and-Mouth Disease; Force of Gravity; Geographic Information Systems; Gold; Heterogeneity; Human; Individual; Infection; Infection Control; Literature; Livestock; Location; Maps; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Movement; Outcome; Pattern; Pennsylvania; Population; Prevention; Prevention program; Prevention strategy; Purpose; Quarantine; Range; Recovery; Resolution; Sheep; Social Well-Being; Speed; Standards of Weights and Measures; Sus scrofa; System; Testing; Vaccination; Vaccine Therapy; Work; Zip Code; base; comparative; density; disorder control; feral; food terrorism; instrument; interest; response; size; social; success; tool

We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD. With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The heirarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (eg data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psycholgical) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.

我们将为暂时的范式模型框架开发一个基于证据的层次结构家族 以及两个直接传播农场动物感染的空间传播：禽流感（Al）和脚和脚 口腔疾病（关于建模疾病系统的FMD。我们将同时创建局部（在内 Al和FMD的县，州和国家模型。继承策略很重要，因为 更简单的模型可以更快地完成，更容易地进行参数化，因此更加 可能可以使用比更复杂的模型使用。他们的行为更容易 概括到其他系统，并可以以战略性（如果不是战术意义）为响应措施提供信息。这 更复杂的模型是必不可少的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成及其 行为可能不容易被推广到其他感染。我们的建议代表了妥协 在提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息之间的需求与 要求我们可以为预防，反应和恢复的战术决定提供信息。除其他 事情，我们将研究每个模型的适当水平（比例）。有 美国很少有农场位置映射到大多数现有类型所需的细节水平 在州或国家规模上的空间和时间扩散模型的模型。我们将设计模型 基于其他空间分辨率（例如基于邮政编码的数据， 县或国家电网系统）。我们将使用详细的空间测试和校准这些近似值 随机模型使用宾夕法尼亚州农场的详细和广泛的GIS数据库开发 然后将其使用扩展到美国的其他地区。我们将使用模型设计和完善 预防，反应和恢复策略。 禽流感和脚和口腔疾病是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在药物 毁灭性动物流行病本身对 人口的福祉（社会，经济和心理）。这里提出的模型将有助于 在计划预防，控制和响应的策略中。尤其是禽流感 控制鸟类的感染是人们控制人的一种先发制人的策略。