Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

时空动态的分层模型*

• 批准号: 7766233
• 负责人: Gary Smith
• 金额: $ 25.9万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-02-01 至 2013-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7766233
• 关键词: Accounting; Adverse effects; Animals; Avian Influenza; Behavior; Birds; Businesses; Cattle; Code; Commerce; County; Data; Databases; Deer; Disease; Disease model; Domestic Fowls; Economics; Epidemic; Family; Family suidae; Farming environment; Foot-and-Mouth Disease; Force of Gravity; Gold; Heterogeneity; Human; Individual; Infection; Infection Control; Literature; Livestock; Location; Maps; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Movement; Outcome; Pattern; Pennsylvania; Population; Prevention; Prevention program; Prevention strategy; Quarantine; Recovery; Resolution; Sheep; Social Well-Being; Speed; System; Testing; Vaccination; Vaccine Therapy; Work; base; comparative; density; disorder control; evidence base; feral; food terrorism; instrument; interest; response; social; success; tool

We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD. With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The heirarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (eg data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psycholgical) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.

我们将开发一个以证据为基础的范式模型框架的等级家庭

项目成果

Food- and water-borne disease: using case control studies to estimate the force of infection that accounts for primary, sporadic cases.

食源性和水媒疾病：利用病例对照研究估算原发性零星病例的感染力。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.04.002
• 发表时间: 2013-06
• 期刊: EPIDEMICS
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Smith, G.

Stochastic modeling of animal epidemics using data collected over three different spatial scales.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.003
• 发表时间: 2011-06
• 期刊: EPIDEMICS
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Rorres, Chris;Pelletier, Sky T. K.;Smith, Gary
• 通讯作者: Smith, Gary

Preferential sexual transmission of pseudorabies virus in feral swine populations may not account for observed seroprevalence in the USA.

野猪种群中伪标记病毒的优先传播可能不会说明美国的血清阳性。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.09.010
• 发表时间: 2012-02-01
• 期刊: Preventive veterinary medicine
• 影响因子: 2.6
• 作者: Smith G

Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.019
• 发表时间: 2009-06-21
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Tildesley, Michael J.;Keeling, Matt J.
• 通讯作者: Keeling, Matt J.

Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2010.04.003
• 发表时间: 2010-08
• 期刊: THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 1.4
• 作者: Rorres, Chris;Pelletier, Sky T. K.;Keeling, Matt J.;Smith, Gary
• 通讯作者: Smith, Gary