Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

描述(由申请人提供)：我们将开发一个基于证据的典型模型家族，用于两种直接传播的农场动物感染的时间和空间传播：禽流感(Al)和口蹄疫(FMD)。关于疾病系统的建模，我们将创建地方(在牛群/羊群内)、县、州和国家的Al和FMD模型。分层策略很重要，因为较简单的模型可以更快地完成，也更容易实现参数化，因此比较复杂的模型更有可能可用。他们的行为可以更容易地推广到其他系统，并可以从战略(如果不是战术)的意义上为应对措施提供信息。更复杂的模型是基本的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成，它们的行为可能不会那么容易推广到其他感染上。我们的建议是在需要提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息和要求我们可以为有关预防、应对和恢复的战术决策提供信息之间达成妥协。除其他事项外，我们还将调查每个模型的适当粒度(规模)。在美国，很少有地区将农场位置映射到大多数现有类型的模型所需的详细程度，以在州或国家尺度上进行空间和时间传播。我们将设计基于其他空间分辨率的模型(集合人口/斑块/重力模型)(例如，基于邮政编码、县或国家网格系统的数据)。我们将使用详细的空间随机模型测试和校准这些近似，这些模型使用宾夕法尼亚州农场位置的详细和广泛的地理信息系统数据库开发，然后将它们的使用扩展到美国其他地区。我们将利用这些模式来制定和完善预防、应对和恢复战略。禽流感和口蹄疫除了本身就是破坏性的动物流行病之外，还是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在病原体，对人类的福祉(社会、经济和心理)有巨大的不利影响。这里提出的模型将有助于规划预防、控制和应对战略。特别是在禽流感的情况下，控制禽类感染是控制人感染的先发制人的策略。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The hierarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (e.g. data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psychological) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.