COincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment (COPSE)

该项目将为未来的气候变化数据开发可靠的方法，供建筑设计师用于可能持续到本世纪末的新建筑和翻新。主要的申请成果将是英国特许屋宇装备工程师学会(CIBSE)的技术备忘录(TM)草稿，适合资深设计师使用。这将得到广泛的案例研究的支持，以验证新的天气数据设计方法，并用于稍后描述的研究任务。将制定与气候和建筑环境的不同情景相关的故事情节，以及建筑设计中的风险级别，以使设计师能够自信地使用天气数据。TM将为CIBSE提供一致的方法来选择和使用未来的数据，以用于其新的设计指南，这是建筑物及其服务的设计者使用的基本文件，也是政府建筑法规的支持性文件。该项目的基础将是将于2008年发布的英国气候影响计划(UKCIP)未来情景(UKCIP08)，从该情景可以得出本世纪不同天气结果的概率。学术产出将包括对主动和被动系统的碳减排潜力的广泛评估，以及新建筑和翻新建筑的设计。他们将利用PC对建筑和系统进行模拟的案例研究，使用新的概率天气数据。这些评估将为设计师和政策制定者提供指导方针，以帮助减少建筑物温室气体(GHGs)的增长，目前建筑物温室气体排放约占英国排放量的50%。其他学术成果将为拟议的基于PC和手动的一致设计方法提供理论基础，这些方法具有重合的、概率的未来天气数据参数，如太阳辐射、气温、风速和风向。众所周知，太阳辐射和气温在不同的时间和不同的日子有峰值，但目前的设计方法必然将它们分开，从而经常发生过度设计。一个相关的学术成果将是选择拟议的新设计参考年(Dry)的理论基础，该年将促进在PC上进行模拟的建筑设计(包括被动和主动供暖和制冷系统以及舒适性评估)。Dry将取代目前不令人满意的设计夏季年。HadRM3和UKCIP02模型中没有详细介绍的太阳辐射数据将被开发出来，以满足设计师的要求。同样，风数据(由于风驱动自然通风，所以必须包括在内)，尽管置信度较低。降雨持续时间和雨量在建筑设计过程中也很重要，因为排水和雨水穿透破坏，设计师的要求将再次得到审查。本指南中简要提到的城市热岛效应(城市地区往往比附近的农村地区更热)将被纳入新数据，在蝎子工作的基础上发展，以提供更真实的城市天气数据。还将应用本地修改或缩小比例来为英国的其他网站生成数据。这将使新的指南能够涵盖曼彻斯特目前为CIBSE开发的14个站点以上。为了确保新的概率产出对专业人员有用，并反映最佳设计实践，将有利益攸关方的大力参与，成立一个利益攸关方小组，包括相应的成员，其中将包括CIBSE、建筑师和软件公司以及房屋建筑商。政策利益将通过社区和地方政府部以及DEFRA及其承包商(如BRE)来实现。它将与曼彻斯特领导的EPSRC斯科奇奥城市热岛和气候变化项目、英国国际投资计划和廷德尔中心建立联系。

This project will develop sound methods for future climate change data for building designers to use for new buildings and refurbishments that could last to the end of this century. The principal application output will be a draft Technical Memorandum (TM) for the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, CIBSE, suitable for practising designers. This will be supported by extensive case studies to validate the new weather data design methodology and be used in research tasks described later. 'Story lines' relevant to different scenarios for the climate and built environment will be developed as well as risk levels in building design to enable designers to use the weather data with confidence. The TM will provide CIBSE with a consistent methodology for the selection and use of future data for its new Design Guide, a fundamental document used by designers of buildings and their services and a supporting document for the Government's Building Regulations. The basis for this project will be the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) future scenarios to be published in 2008 (UKCIP08) from which may be derived probabilities of different weather outcomes over this century. Academic outputs will include an extensive assessment of the carbon reduction potential of active and passive systems and designs for new and refurbished buildings. They will utilise case studies with PC simulation of the building and systems, employing the new probabilistic weather data. These assessments will provide designers and policy makers with guidelines to help reduce the growth in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from buildings, which at present contribute about 50% of the UK emissions. Other academic outputs will provide the theoretical basis underlying the proposed consistent PC-based and manual design methodology with coincident, probabilistic future weather data parameters such as solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and direction. It is known that solar radiation and air temperature have peak values at different times and on different days but current design methods do necessarily separate them so that over-design often occurs. A related academic output will be a theory underpinning the selection of the proposed new Design Reference Year (DRY) which will facilitate building design (including passive and active heating and cooling systems and comfort assessment) with simulation on a PC. The DRY will replace the currently unsatisfactory Design Summer Year. Solar radiation data, not covered in detail in the HadRM3 and UKCIP02 models, will be developed to satisfy designers' requirements. Likewise wind data (crucial to include since wind drives natural ventilation) although the confidence level will be lower. Rainfall duration and quantity are also important in the building design process because of drainage and rain penetration damage and designers' requirements will again be reviewed.'Urban heat island' effects (urban areas are often hotter than the nearby rural areas), briefly mentioned in the present Guide, will be incorporated in the new data, developing on SCORCHIO work to provide more realistic urban weather data. Local modification or downscaling will also be applied to generate data for other sites in the UK. This will enable the new Guide to cover more than the current 14 sites for which data were developed by Manchester for CIBSE.To ensure that the new, probabilistic outputs will be useful to professionals, and to reflect best practice in design, there will be strong stakeholder involvement through the formation of a Stakeholders Group, including Corresponding Members, which will include CIBSE, architects and software houses and housebuilders. Policy interests will be reached via the Department for Communities and Local Government, and DEFRA and their contractors, such as BRE. There will be links to the Manchester-led EPSRC SCORCHIO urban heat island and climate change project, UKCIP and the Tyndall Centre.