Social contact survey and modelling the spread of influenza

社会接触调查和流感传播建模

• 批准号: G0701256/1
• 负责人: Matthew Keeling
• 金额: $ 85.27万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2008 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=G0701256%2F1
• 关键词: Social; contact; survey; modelling; spread

When the HIV epidemic was recognised in the 1980s, vast amounts of work were undertaken to reveal the networks of sexual encounters through which HIV could spread. Knowing this allowed scientists to develop accurate predictions of the way the epidemic would grow. Given the current risks of pandemic influenza, it is necessary to collect similar information on the types of personal interaction which can lead to the spread of influenza or other airborne infections. We have developed a simple anonymous questionnaire which we wish to distribute to homes in the UK -- as well as developing a web-based questionnaire. The results of this survey will provide a picture of the types, duration and number of social contacts per person in the UK. This data will then enable us to create a far more accurate mathematical model which will be used to predict the spread of influenza in the UK, identify the most at-risk sections of the community, and help to inform policy makers and public-health organisations about the best way to control any outbreaks.

20世纪80年代，当艾滋病毒流行被认识到时，人们开展了大量工作，以揭示艾滋病毒可以通过其传播的性接触网络。知道了这一点，科学家们就可以对疫情的传播方式做出准确的预测。鉴于目前大流行性流感的风险，有必要收集关于可能导致流感或其他空气传播感染传播的个人互动类型的类似信息。我们已经开发了一份简单的匿名问卷，我们希望将其分发给英国的家庭--以及开发一份基于网络的问卷。这项调查的结果将提供一幅英国人均社交类型、持续时间和数量的图景。然后，这些数据将使我们能够创建一个更准确的数学模型，用于预测流感在英国的传播，识别社区中风险最高的部分，并帮助向政策制定者和公共卫生组织通报控制任何疫情的最佳方法。