Social contact survey and modelling the spread of influenza

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When the HIV epidemic was recognised in the 1980s, vast amounts of work were undertaken to reveal the networks of sexual encounters through which HIV could spread. Knowing this allowed scientists to develop accurate predictions of the way the epidemic would grow. Given the current risks of pandemic influenza, it is necessary to collect similar information on the types of personal interaction which can lead to the spread of influenza or other airborne infections. We have developed a simple anonymous questionnaire which we wish to distribute to homes in the UK -- as well as developing a web-based questionnaire. The results of this survey will provide a picture of the types, duration and number of social contacts per person in the UK. This data will then enable us to create a far more accurate mathematical model which will be used to predict the spread of influenza in the UK, identify the most at-risk sections of the community, and help to inform policy makers and public-health organisations about the best way to control any outbreaks.