Uncertainty Assessments of Flood Inundation Impacts: Using spatial climate change scenarios to drive ensembles of distributed models for extremes

洪水淹没影响的不确定性评估：利用空间气候变化情景驱动极端分布式模型集合

• 批准号: NE/E002242/1
• 负责人: Hannah Cloke
• 金额: $ 55.02万
• 依托单位: King's College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2007 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE002242%2F1
• 关键词: Uncertainty; Assessments; Flood; Inundation; Impacts

Exploratory climate change studies for the UK indicate that an increase in the frequency of extreme events and associated flood risk is likely. Given that floods cause damage of over £1bn per year under present climatic conditions, climate change bears significant consequences for flood risk management. In order to evaluate these consequences, hydrological and flood inundation models are forced with projections of precipitation from atmospheric models for a range of Greenhouse gas emission scenarios to produce future flood predictions. However the validity and uncertainty of these model-based input precipitation fields are of key concern, as they potentially constitute a major source of ambiguity for hydrological and hydraulic modelling. Additionally, uncertainty is associated with the hydrological and inundation models themselves, such as for example the models ability to represent the dominating physical processes and to uniquely identify effective model factors (parameters and any other model variables) that will shape future forecasts. As the non-linear interaction of all model components will influence the total uncertainty associated with hydrological impact assessments these need to be comprehensively assessed. Therefore, a key and exciting challenge is to describe and quantify the origin and propagation of uncertainty from climate to hydrological to flood inundation models. This project aims to develop a novel holistic modelling approach for doing this. Our region of focus will be the River Severn catchment because of concerns about current and future flood risk. Specifically we will: (1) Quantify the 'top-end' uncertainties associated with climate change hydrological impact assessments by analyzing precipitation fields produced by two contrasting methods and assess how these affect the nature of flood and inundation predictions (2) Evaluate all uncertainties between and within a cascade modeling framework for flood inundation predictions in a fully coupled and dynamic way (3) Use novel techniques of uncertainty analysis including global sensitivity analysis and a new efficient functional similarity sampling approach to enable an effective evaluation of the uncertainties in the modeling cascade. (4) Assess the likely flood hazard change for the River Severn catchment over the next 100 years for various climate, landuse and soil moisture scenarios This project will deliver an insightful scientific methodology which can be used in future research assessments and catapult UK science to the forefront of an exciting, socially, and politically important international research area.

英国的探索性气候变化研究表明，极端事件和相关洪水风险的频率的增加可能会增加。鉴于地板在当前的杂物条件下每年造成超过10亿英镑的损害，因此气候变化对洪水风险管理产生了重大影响。为了评估这些后果，大气模型的降水项目强迫水文和洪水淹没模型，用于一系列温室气体排放场景，以产生未来的洪水预测。但是，这些基于模型的输入精度领域的有效性和不确定性是关键问题，因为它们可能构成了水文和水利建模的歧义的主要歧义。此外，不确定性与氢和淹没模型本身有关，例如，模型可以代表主导物理过程并唯一识别将塑造未来森林的有效模型因素（参数和任何其他模型变量）。由于所有模型组件的非线性相互作用将影响与水文影响评估相关的总不确定性，因此需要全面评估。因此，一个关键而令人兴奋的挑战是描述和量化从气候到水文到洪水淹没模型的不确定性的起源和传播。该项目旨在开发一种新型的整体建模方法来实现这一目标。由于担心当前和未来的洪水风险，我们的重点区域将是塞文河集水区。具体而言，我们将：（1）通过分析通过两种对比方法产生的精确领域来量化与气候变化氢影响评估相关的“顶端”不确定性，并评估这些领域如何影响洪水和淹没预测的性质（2）评估所有不确定性在层层造型和全球范围内的不确定性（包括全球范围内的无效方法）（3）（3）（3灵敏度分析和一种新的有效功能相似性抽样方法，以有效评估建模级联中的不确定性。 （4）评估未来100年来，塞文河流流域的洪水危害变化，用于各种气候，土地和土壤水分情景，该项目将提供一种有见地的科学方法论，可以在未来的研究评估和英国弹射科学中使用，并成为令人兴奋，社会上，社会和政治上重要的国际研究领域的最前沿。

项目成果

Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005
• 发表时间: 2009-09-15
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Cloke, H. L.;Pappenberger, F.
• 通讯作者: Pappenberger, F.

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.1998
• 发表时间: 2013-01-01
• 期刊: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Cloke, Hannah L.;Wetterhall, Fredrik;Pappenberger, Florian
• 通讯作者: Pappenberger, Florian

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

• DOI: 10.1002/met.132
• 发表时间: 2009-03
• 期刊: Meteorological Applications
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Yi He;F. Wetterhall;H. Cloke;F. Pappenberger;Matthew D. Wilson;J. Freer;G. McGregor

Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

• DOI: 10.1002/met.58
• 发表时间: 2008-03-01
• 期刊: METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Cloke, Hannah L.;Pappenberger, Florian
• 通讯作者: Pappenberger, Florian

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

• DOI: 10.3354/cr00974
• 发表时间: 2010-01-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE RESEARCH
• 影响因子: 1.1
• 作者: Clark, J. M.;Billett, M. F.;Worrall, F.
• 通讯作者: Worrall, F.