Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Control Policies

肺癌控制政策的比较模型

• 批准号: 8324040
• 负责人: David Theodore Levy
• 金额: $ 137.73万
• 依托单位: MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8324040
• 关键词: Adopted; Adult; American; Area; Biological Markers; Cancer Control; Cancer Etiology; Cancer Intervention; Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network; Cessation of life; Cohort Studies; Collaborations; Complex; Data; Data Sources; Focus Groups; Goals; Health Policy; Image; Incidence; Intervention; Joints; Lung; Malignant Neoplasms; Malignant neoplasm of lung; Modeling; Natural History; Observational Study; Outcome Measure; Policies; Population; Publishing; Randomized Controlled Trials; Reporting; Research Infrastructure; Screening procedure; Smoke; Smoking; Spiral Computed Tomography; Subgroup; Techniques; Tobacco; Translating; Uncertainty; United States; Variant; Work; arm; base; comparative; design; flexibility; lung cancer screening; mortality; network models; programs; public policy on tobacco; tobacco control; tobacco screening; tool; trend; tumor registry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Sophisticated modeling techniques can be powerful tools for decision makers seeking to understand the effects of cancer control interventions on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. Yet the proven value of such models in health policy is limited by legitimate concerns over lack of transparency of complex models and variability in published results from different groups. NCI's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) was created to promote collaboration between independent modeling groups investigating similar questions. By using the same sources of data for inputs and agreeing on uniform outcome measures, the variability in results reflects uncertainty in the effects of cancer control interventions rather than differences in design of the analysis. Further, by working together, the modeling groups can coherently explain the causes of variation. This proposal furthers the goals of CISNET by using comparative modeling approach to estimate the contributions of tobacco control and screening to reducing deaths from lung cancer. Over the next 5 years, major trials will report results on the efficacy of helical CT screening for lung cancer. The five CISNET models described in this proposal represent an existing infrastructure with which to synthesize these new data with existing data from observational and cohort studies and tumor registries. This group of models is poised to translate trial results into population-level effects and to project trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality if these policy interventions were adopted alone or in combination. We propose to disseminate our results in ways that will allow decision makers to prioritize one or more specific interventions to achieve the greatest reduction in lung cancer deaths.

描述（由申请人提供）：对于寻求了解癌症控制干预措施对癌症发病率和死亡率的人口趋势的影响的决策者来说，复杂的建模技术是强大的工具。然而，这种模型在卫生政策中的证明价值受到合理关切的限制，这些关切包括复杂模型缺乏透明度以及不同群体公布的结果存在差异。NCI的癌症干预和监测建模网络（CISNET）的创建是为了促进独立建模小组之间的合作，调查类似的问题。通过使用相同的数据来源作为投入，并商定统一的结果衡量标准，结果的差异反映了癌症控制干预措施效果的不确定性，而不是分析设计的差异。此外，通过合作，建模组可以连贯地解释变异的原因。 该提案通过使用比较建模方法来估计烟草控制和筛查对减少肺癌死亡的贡献，进一步推进了CISNET的目标。在接下来的5年里，主要的试验将报告螺旋CT筛查肺癌的有效性。本提案中描述的五个CISNET模型代表了一个现有的基础设施，可用于将这些新数据与来自观察性和队列研究以及肿瘤登记的现有数据进行综合。这组模型准备将试验结果转化为人口水平的影响，并预测如果单独或联合采用这些政策干预措施，肺癌发病率和死亡率的趋势。我们建议以允许决策者优先考虑一种或多种特定干预措施的方式传播我们的结果，以实现肺癌死亡的最大减少。