Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR) TCORS 3.0

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CENTER Abstract The integrative theme for the Center for the Assessment of Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR) is to provide evidence-based and expert-informed modeling of the behavioral and public health impacts of FDA tobacco rules or other regulatory actions, focusing on Impact Analysis, Behavior and Health Effects as Scientific Domains. To evaluate the public health impacts of tobacco use and regulation, information must be gathered from different sources on tobacco use behaviors, health risks and the impact of regulations on use patterns. This information must then be synthetized and processed in a systematic and objective manner, helping policy makers gauge the impact that such regulations would have at the population level and aiding them in their decision-making process. Simulation modeling of tobacco use patterns and related health outcomes can serve as a key tool to assist FDA in evaluating and predicting population-level benefits and harms resulting from regulatory policies pertaining to new and existing tobacco products. When effectively applied, modeling also becomes a way of organizing and synthesizing different sources of information and identifying gaps in that information, especially where tobacco use patterns vary for different socio-economic populations. Our Center will have four projects based on the detailed analyses of current and historical tobacco use patterns in the US using established tobacco simulation models, with different approaches to provide a range of diverse insights. The overarching aim of Project 1 (Impact Analysis, Health Effects, and Behavior) is to conduct comparative modeling of the impact of FDA regulatory actions and novel tobacco products on tobacco use and long-term health outcomes. Project 2 (Addiction, Behavior, Impact Analysis, and Health Effects) will model the process of nicotine addiction among youths and young adults and its potential future consequences. Project 3 (Impact Analysis and Behavior) will develop tools to assess the impact of flavor restrictions on smoking and vaping for the overall US population and for urban and rural populations. Project 4 (Behavior, Health Effects, and Impact Analysis) will develop models for vulnerable populations and assess the impact of tobacco use and regulations by race/ethnicity, education, and their intersection. Four cores will serve the Center: the Administrative Core (AC) to coordinate the work of the projects and cores; the Career Enhancement Core (CEC) to provide training to junior investigators on the capabilities and limitations of tobacco regulatory science and simulation modeling; the Data Analysis and Modeling (DAM) Core to analyze and provide the data for each of the models and develop infrastructure for dissemination of model parameters and modeling results; and the Policy and Dissemination (PAD) Core to generate estimates for key policy and health effects, modeling parameters via systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and expert panels.