The Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the NLSY79

NLSY79 生育意愿与行为的对应关系

• 批准号: 8212013
• 负责人: Samuel Philip Morgan
• 金额: $ 7.57万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-12-01 至 2013-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8212013
• 关键词: Age; Age-Years; Behavior; Birth; Child; Contraceptive Agents; Data; Educational Status; Emotional; Equilibrium; Ethnic Origin; Failure; Family Sizes; Fertility; Gender; Growth; Health; Individual Differences; Intention; Life; Life Cycle Stages; Logistic Models; Longitudinal Surveys; Marriage; Measures; Modeling; Multiple Birth Offspring; Never Married; Personal Satisfaction; Process; Race; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Research; Respondent; Sampling; Stress; Subgroup; Sum; Time; Unwanted Birth; Ursidae Family; Woman; Work; Youth; insight; interest; men; parity; public health relevance; satisfaction; unintended pregnancy

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) contains the most detailed data ever collected on fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behavior -- a large nationally representative sample of men and women born 1957-64 provided retrospective fertility histories and were asked their fertility intentions 16 times between 1979 and 2006. We use these remarkable data to build on prior work by Quesnel-Vallee and Morgan (2003) and Morgan and Rackin (2010) to describe the correspondence between intended family size (at various ages) and completed fertility. Earlier work shows that the mean error is negative - women and men have fewer children than intended -- but this error is modest in size. We also calculate the "gross error" (the absolute value of the individual differences between intentions measured at age 24 and behavior at age 45); this error is quite large approximating one birth for women and men. We propose to examine the correlates of "missing the target" both "low" and "high" over various ages (and years). These analyses correspond to and inform a "proximate determinants" model of low fertility proposed by Bongaarts (2001; also see Morgan 2003) and a theoretical framework that stresses that fertility intentions are highly contingent and highly constrained. We will also use these data to estimate dynamic models of interrelated fertility and intention change over the life course. Specifically, following Bollen and Curran (2004) we will estimate an "autoregressive latent trajectory model"- a model that subsumes the dominant approaches (the growth model and the autoregressive model) to modeling life course processes in longitudinal data. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research examines women and men's actual fertility behavior vis-`- vis their intentions for children. Unintended pregnancies impact the health and well-being of women and men as well as the children they bear. Likewise, unmet desire for children can have consequences for emotional well-being and life satisfaction.

描述(由申请人提供)：1979年全国青年纵向调查(NLSY79)包含了迄今为止收集到的关于生育意愿和随后的生育行为的最详细的数据-1957年出生的男性和女性的大量全国代表性样本-提供了追溯的生育史，并在1979年至2006年期间16次被问及他们的生育意愿。在Quesnel-Vallee和Morgan(2003)和Morgan和Rackin(2010)先前工作的基础上，我们使用这些显著的数据来描述预期家庭规模(在不同年龄)与完全生育率之间的对应关系。早期的研究表明，平均误差是负的--女性和男性的孩子比预期的要少--但这个错误的大小并不大。我们还计算了“粗差”(在24岁时测量的意图和45岁时的行为之间的个体差异的绝对值)；这个误差相当大，接近于女性和男性的一次出生。我们建议研究不同年龄(和年龄段)“未达到目标”的相关性，包括“低”和“高”。这些分析符合Bongaart(2001；也见Morgan 2003)提出的低生育率的“最接近的决定因素”模型，以及强调生育意愿是高度偶然性和高度受限的理论框架。我们还将使用这些数据来估计生命过程中相互关联的生育率和意愿变化的动态模型。具体地说，在Bollen和Curran(2004)之后，我们将估计一个“自回归潜在轨迹模型”--该模型包含了在纵向数据中模拟生命过程的主要方法(增长模型和自回归模型)。 与公共健康相关：这项拟议的研究调查了女性和男性的实际生育行为与他们生孩子的意图。意外怀孕影响男女及其所生子女的健康和福祉。同样，对孩子未得到满足的愿望可能会对情绪健康和生活满意度产生影响。