Late 20th Century U.S. Fertility Trends and Differences

20 世纪末美国生育率趋势和差异

• 批准号: 6638053
• 负责人: Samuel Philip Morgan
• 金额: $ 24.26万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-06-08 至 2005-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6638053
• 关键词: African American; Asians; Hispanic Americans; Pacific Islander; United States; academic achievement; age at pregnancy; behavioral /social science research tag; bias; caucasian American; child (0-11); clinical research; data collection methodology /evaluation; epidemiology; family planning; family structure /dynamics; female; fertility; human data; human population study; parity; racial /ethnic difference; sex; vital statistics; women's health

U.S. fertility trends and levels have become an anomaly, both theoretically and in contrast with what has happened in other developed countries. We argue that one key to understanding this American puzzle lies in understanding fertility trends (overall and age/parity specific) by education and race/ethnicity. To do so, we need fertility rates dis-aggregated by race/ethnicity and education, but unfortunately there is suggestive evidence that the educational and race/ethnicity rates estimated from registration system data are biased. We propose, in seven integrated specific aims, to systematically examine the biases present in vital registration natality data, and then, using other data sources, conduct theoretically guided descriptive analyses of recent U.S. fertility trends and differentials. Specifically, we: 1) Examine the strengths and weaknesses of vital registration data for basic description of U.S. fertility trends and differentials. 2) Estimate age-period-cohort effects on parity-specific fertility time series for the 20th century. 3) Assess the assumptions and usefulness of the Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) technique for decomposing U.S. period fertility differences into quantum and tempo components. 4) Examine parallel or divergent racial/ethnic changes in period fertility. 5) Assess differential change in period fertility by education. 6) Test whether the effects of sex of previous children on subsequent fertility persist over time and are pervasive across race/ethnic and educational groups. 7) Compare these behavioral patterns with stated intentions for additional children.

美国的生育率趋势和水平已经成为一种反常现象，无论是在理论上还是与其他发达国家的情况相比都是如此。我们认为，理解这一美国谜题的关键之一是理解按教育和种族/民族划分的生育率趋势(总体和年龄/生育水平)。要做到这一点，我们需要按种族/族裔和教育分列生育率，但不幸的是，有提示性证据表明，从登记系统数据估计的教育和种族/族裔比率是有偏见的。我们建议，在七个综合的具体目标中，系统地检查生命登记出生数据中存在的偏差，然后使用其他数据来源，对美国最近的生育趋势和差异进行理论指导的描述性分析。具体地说，我们：1)检查重要登记数据的优势和劣势，以基本描述美国的生育趋势和差异。2)估计年龄-时期-队列对20世纪特定生育率时间序列的影响。3)评估Bongaart and Feeney(1998)技术的假设和有用性，该技术将美国时期生育率差异分解为数量和节奏成分。4)检查不同时期生育率的平行或不同种族/族裔变化。5)通过教育评估生育期的差异变化。6)测试以前孩子的性别对随后生育的影响是否随着时间的推移而持续存在，并在种族/民族和教育群体中普遍存在。7)将这些行为模式与声明的增加孩子的意图进行比较。