Late 20th Century U.S. Fertility Trends and Differences

美国的生育趋势和水平已经成为一种反常现象，无论是在理论上还是与其他发达国家的情况相比。 我们认为，理解这个美国难题的一个关键在于理解教育和种族/民族的生育趋势（总体和年龄/胎次）。 要做到这一点，我们需要按种族/民族和教育分列的生育率，但不幸的是，有证据表明，从登记系统数据中估计的教育和种族/民族比率是有偏见的。我们建议，在七个综合的具体目标，系统地检查存在于人口动态登记出生率数据的偏见，然后，使用其他数据来源，进行理论指导的描述性分析最近美国生育趋势和差异。 具体而言，我们：1）检查重要登记数据的优点和缺点，以基本描述美国生育趋势和差异。 2)估计世纪年龄-时期-队列对特定胎次生育率时间序列的影响。 3)评估Bongaarts和Feeney（1998）将美国时期生育率差异分解为量子和克里思分量的技术的假设和有用性。 4)检查生育期的平行或不同种族/民族变化。 5)评估不同教育阶段生育率的差异变化。 6)测试前一个孩子的性别对随后的生育率的影响是否随着时间的推移而持续存在，并且在种族/民族和教育群体中普遍存在。 7)将这些行为模式与其他儿童的既定意图进行比较。

U.S. fertility trends and levels have become an anomaly, both theoretically and in contrast with what has happened in other developed countries. We argue that one key to understanding this American puzzle lies in understanding fertility trends (overall and age/parity specific) by education and race/ethnicity. To do so, we need fertility rates dis-aggregated by race/ethnicity and education, but unfortunately there is suggestive evidence that the educational and race/ethnicity rates estimated from registration system data are biased. We propose, in seven integrated specific aims, to systematically examine the biases present in vital registration natality data, and then, using other data sources, conduct theoretically guided descriptive analyses of recent U.S. fertility trends and differentials. Specifically, we: 1) Examine the strengths and weaknesses of vital registration data for basic description of U.S. fertility trends and differentials. 2) Estimate age-period-cohort effects on parity-specific fertility time series for the 20th century. 3) Assess the assumptions and usefulness of the Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) technique for decomposing U.S. period fertility differences into quantum and tempo components. 4) Examine parallel or divergent racial/ethnic changes in period fertility. 5) Assess differential change in period fertility by education. 6) Test whether the effects of sex of previous children on subsequent fertility persist over time and are pervasive across race/ethnic and educational groups. 7) Compare these behavioral patterns with stated intentions for additional children.