RECENT CHANGES IN U.S. FERTILITY

美国生育率的最新变化

• 批准号: 3331098
• 负责人: Samuel Philip Morgan
• 金额: $ 10.32万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-08-01 至 1995-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3331098
• 关键词: African American; United States; age at pregnancy; caucasian American; fertility; human population dynamics; longitudinal human study; marriage /marital status; population survey; racial /ethnic difference; sex education; vital statistics

The total fertility rate has remained virtually unchanged over the past 15 years. Using vital registration data and Current Population Survey (CPS) data, our proposed research will examine below the flat terrain suggested by the total fertility rate and describe important change taking place in the social substrata defined by age, parity, race, education and marital status. Our research places special emphasis on the timing of the first birth because historically it has been the dominant demographic component of fertility change. But the timing of second and third births will also be studied, as will the effects of first birth timing on the pace of subsequent fertility and completed family size. Using vital registration data for whites, the 1980s can be characterized by continued 'delayed childbearing' among women in their 20s and some 'catching up' (e.g., higher fertility) among women in their 30s. To better understand recent fertility increases among older women, we will closely study a group whose behavior typifies these changes -- the high school class of 1972. Using six rounds of data collected from men and women in the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, we will test a series of hypotheses about factors promoting and retarding the transition to parenthood, focusing on the ages 25-32. We will test if the same factors which predict first birth timing also predict which men and women will proceed more quickly to have a second and third birth. We will also devote special attention to racial differences. We will document racial divergence in first-birth timing using vital registration data and retrospective data from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 CPS. Interest focuses on differential racial trends by education and martial status. One hypothesis for the racial differences proposes that marriage is a 'parenthood license' for most whites but that this is less true for African Americans. As a result African Americans have fewer preconditions to satisfy prior to becoming parents. Such an explanation suggests that racial differences will be concentrated in nonmarital fertility. Another hypothesis to be tested predicts the greatest racial difference among the most educated.

总和生育率在过去几乎没有变化 15年 使用人口动态登记数据和当前人口调查 (CPS)数据，我们提出的研究将检查平坦的地形以下， 总生育率所暗示的，并描述重要变化 发生在由年龄，平等，种族， 教育和婚姻状况。 我们的研究特别强调 第一次出生的时间，因为从历史上看， 生育率变化的主要人口组成部分。 但是， 第二胎和第三胎也将被研究， 第一次生育时间对随后生育速度的影响， 家庭规模。 使用白人的重要登记数据，20世纪80年代可以 其特点是妇女在其家庭中继续“推迟生育”， 20多岁和一些“追赶”（例如，生育率较高）的妇女， 30先令 为了更好地了解最近老年妇女生育率的上升， 我们将仔细研究一个群体，他们的行为代表了这些变化-- 1972年的高中毕业生 使用六轮收集的数据， 全国高中班级纵向研究中的男女 1972年，我们将测试一系列关于促进因素的假设， 推迟向父母身份的过渡，重点是25-32岁。 我们 将测试预测第一次生育时间的相同因素是否也 预测哪一个男人和女人会更快地拥有第二个 第三次出生。 我们还将特别关注种族问题， 差异 我们将记录第一胎出生时间的种族差异 使用1980年、1985年的生命登记数据和回顾性数据， 1990年CPS 兴趣集中在不同的种族趋势， 教育和军事地位。 种族差异的一个假设是 婚姻对大多数白人来说是一种“父母身份证”， 这对非裔美国人来说就不那么真实了。 结果，非裔美国人 在成为父母之前需要满足的先决条件更少。 这样的 这一解释表明，种族差异将集中在 非婚生育 另一个有待检验的假设预测， 在受教育程度最高的人群中，种族差异最大。