Low fertility in the Islamic Republic of Iran

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Understanding variation in low fertility is among the most important topics in contemporary demography. Some of the lowest contemporary fertility rates are in developed countries with "strong family systems" (e.g., Italy, Spain, Japan). A key question is the "post-transition level" of fertility in many countries now nearing the end of their fertility transition. Iran experienced a dramatic fertility increase after the Iranian 1979 Revolution, but fertility has declined to low levels in the past two decades with fertility now slightly over replacement level for the country as a whole. But some regions have a 2000 TFR of approximately 1.6. We propose to use new data to explore fertility motivations in this low fertility, Muslim country. We develop hypotheses that suggest that low fertility is likely and alternative ones consistent with more modest (replacement) levels of fertility.