Low fertility in the Islamic Republic of Iran

伊朗伊斯兰共和国的低生育率

• 批准号: 6756737
• 负责人: Samuel Philip Morgan
• 金额: $ 7.7万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-16 至 2006-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6756737
• 关键词: Middle East; clinical research; contraceptives; epidemiology; family sizes; fertility; human data; infant mortality; marriage /marital status; preference; socioeconomics; unwanted child

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Understanding variation in low fertility is among the most important topics in contemporary demography. Some of the lowest contemporary fertility rates are in developed countries with "strong family systems" (e.g., Italy, Spain, Japan). A key question is the "post-transition level" of fertility in many countries now nearing the end of their fertility transition. Iran experienced a dramatic fertility increase after the Iranian 1979 Revolution, but fertility has declined to low levels in the past two decades with fertility now slightly over replacement level for the country as a whole. But some regions have a 2000 TFR of approximately 1.6. We propose to use new data to explore fertility motivations in this low fertility, Muslim country. We develop hypotheses that suggest that low fertility is likely and alternative ones consistent with more modest (replacement) levels of fertility.

描述（由申请人提供）：了解低生育率的变化是当代人口统计学中最重要的主题之一。当代生育率最低的一些国家是拥有“强大家庭制度”的发达国家（例如，意大利、西班牙、日本）。一个关键的问题是，许多国家的生育率“过渡后水平”目前已接近其生育率过渡的尾声。1979年伊朗革命后，伊朗的生育率急剧上升，但在过去20年中，生育率下降到较低水平，目前全国的生育率略高于更替水平。但有些区域2000年的总生育率约为1.6。我们建议使用新的数据来探索这个低生育率的穆斯林国家的生育动机。我们提出的假设表明，低生育率是可能的，而替代的假设与更温和的（替代）生育水平相一致。