Disrupting Vector-borne Disease Transmission in Complex Urban Environments

描述（由申请人提供）：在复杂的城市环境中破坏媒介传播的疾病传播本提案将通过开发对未观察到的空间过程进行推理的新方法来改进媒介传播疾病传播的建模，这些方法对空间数据收集中固有的不准确性和不确定性具有鲁棒性。为了制定和评估我们的方法，我们将在秘鲁阿雷基帕市进行实地调查，在那里，恰加斯病的寄生虫克氏锥虫通过昆虫媒介传染是一个严重的城市问题。恰加斯病是美洲最致命的病媒传播疾病之一；超过800万人感染了克氏锥虫。在这800万人中，预计有20%至30%会发展为心脏或消化道形式的慢性恰加斯病，这种病难以治疗，而且往往致命。城市人口密集的环境有利于病媒和寄生虫的传播，阻碍了控制工作并造成了巨大的损失

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Disrupting Vector-borne Disease Transmission in Complex Urban Environments This proposal will improve modeling of vector-borne disease transmission by developing new methods to make inference on unobserved spatial processes that are robust to the inaccuracies and uncertainties inherent in spatial data collection. To develop and evaluate our methods, we will conduct fieldwork in the city of Arequipa, Peru, where transmission of the parasitic agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, by the insect vector Triatoma infestans is a serious urban problem. Chagas disease is one of the most deadly vector-borne diseases in the Americas; over 8 million people are infected with T. cruzi. Of these 8 million individuals 20% to 30% are expected to progress to cardiac or digestive forms of chronic Chagas disease which are difficult to treat and often fatal. The dense environment of cities facilitates the spread of vectors and parasites, hindering control efforts and putting large numbers of individuals at risk for infection. Further complicating control is the grid of city strets that leads to complex patterns of vector dispersal. Our proposal consists of three specific aims; each addresses a broad challenge to elucidating unseen processes of the spread of vector-borne diseases: 1) Mapping: To create maps of vector infestation that account for imperfect entomological surveys and spatial barriers in a landscape; 2) Modeling Spread: To predict T. infestans dispersal through a city despite imperfect maps of its initial occurrence; and, 3) Spatia Control: To detect foci of T. infestans re-emergence and micro-epidemics of T. cruzi infection through adaptive spatial sampling. Achieving these three interlocking aims will improve control of many vector-borne diseases in urban and other complex environments.