Virtual Population Obesity Prevention (VPOP) Labs: Computational, Multi-Scale Models for Obesity Solutions

 描述（由申请人提供）：肥胖症流行是一个持续和日益严重的全球性多尺度问题。设计适当的政策和干预措施一直具有挑战性，因为肥胖是一个复杂的问题，跨越以下六个尺度：遗传，生理，个人，群体/社会网络，物理（建筑）环境和社会。该拟议项目的总体目标是开发肥胖预防虚拟人群（VPOP），这是一个软件平台，可以生成一个基于代理的模型，包括任何大都市地区的六个肥胖相关量表，可以帮助决策者设计，评估和测试拟议的（或现有的）肥胖干预措施和政策。VPOP将带来多项创新，（1）是第一个将六种不同的 影响肥胖的量表;（2）包括对众多途径和关系的新颖表示;（3）为肥胖控制政策和干预措施带来新的见解和目标;（4）以前所未有的广度和深度的真实的世界多尺度肥胖相关数据为基础;（5）让决策者积极参与多尺度模型开发，以最大限度地提高政策相关性，并将VPOP结果转化为有用的行动;（6）开发表示和可视化多尺度结果的新方法;（7）转变肥胖相关数据收集和决策。我们的多学科团队由全球肥胖预防中心（GOPC）领导，该中心专注于开发和实施多尺度系统科学方法，方法和工具来解决肥胖问题，并汇集了匹兹堡超级计算中心（PSC）/卡内基梅隆大学（CMU），康奈尔大学和国家糖尿病，消化和肾脏疾病研究所（NIDDK）的专家。拟议的VPOP以及我们参与机构间建模和分析小组（IMAG）和多尺度建模联盟（MSM）的活动将充分利用我们现有的GOPC和PSC/CMU的资源和努力。这包括广泛的实地研究，以提供一个庞大而广泛的数据集，帮助填充，校准和验证VPOP，并形成一个利益相关者工作组，以指导VPOP的开发，测试和实施。具体目标1将开发VPOP，这是一个平台，可以生成一个地理空间显式计算模型，代表任何大都市区的六个肥胖相关尺度。具体目标2将需要利用VPOP生成两个样本大都市区（巴尔的摩大都市统计区和纽约市）的多尺度模拟模型，用于在六个不同尺度上确定儿童和成人肥胖的关键驱动因素，并确定哪些因素可能对特定方案和政策最敏感。对于具体目标3，我们将通过与关键利益相关者（如城市政策制定者，卫生和规划部门领导，医疗保健管理人员，临床医生和第三方付款人）合作，将VPOP生成的模型转化为决策，以测试和优化一套特定的肥胖控制政策和干预措施。

 DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The obesity epidemic is a continuing and growing major global multi-scale problem. Designing appropriate policies and interventions has been challenging since obesity is a complex problem, crossing the following six scales: genetic, physiological, individual, group/social network, physical (built) environment, and societal. The overall goal of this proposed project is to develop the Virtual Populations for Obesity Prevention (VPOP), a software platform that can generate an agent-based model encompassing the six obesity- relevant scales of any metropolitan area that can help decision makers to design, evaluate, and test proposed (or existing) obesity interventions and policies. VPOP will bring multiple innovations by (1) being the first model to bring together and integrate the six different scales that affect obesity; (2) including novel representations of numerous pathways and relationships; (3) leading to new insights and targets for obesity-control policies and interventions; (4) being grounded in an unprecedented breadth and depth of real- world multi-scale obesity-related data; (5) heavily involving decision makers in multi-scale model development to maximize policy-relevancy and translation of VPOP results into useful action; (6) developing new ways of representing and visualizing multi-scale results; and (7) transforming obesity-related data collection and decision making. Our multi-disciplinary team is led by Global Obesity Prevention Center (GOPC), which focuses on developing and implementing multi-scale systems science approaches, methods, and tools to address obesity, and brings together experts from the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center (PSC)/ Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), Cornell, and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK). The proposed VPOP and our participation in Interagency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG), and Multi-scale Modeling Consortium (MSM) activities would substantially leverage our existing GOPC and PSC/CMU resources and efforts. This includes extensive field studies to provide a large and broad data set to help populate, calibrate, and validate the VPOP and forming a Stakeholder Working Group to guide VPOP development, testing, and implementation. Specific Aim 1 will develop VPOP, a platform that can generate a geospatially explicit computational model representing the six obesity-relevant scales for any metropolitan area. Specific Aim 2 will entail utilizing VPOP to generate multi-scale simulation models of two sample metropolitan areas (the Baltimore Metropolitan Statistical Area and New York City) to use to identify the key drivers of obesity in children and adults across the six different scales and determine which factors may be maximally sensitive to specific programs and policies. For Specific Aim 3, we will translate the VPOP- generated models to decision-making by working with key stakeholders, such as city policy makers, health and planning department leadership, healthcare administrators, clinicians, and third-party payers to test and optimize a specific set of obesity-control policies and interventions.