Projecting the future of early life mortality in the developing world

预测发展中国家早期生命死亡率的未来

• 批准号: 10688076
• 负责人: Dean Spears
• 金额: $ 13.22万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-24 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10688076
• 关键词: Age; Anthropometry; Beginning of Life; Cessation of life; Child; Child Health; Childhood; Climate; Collaborations; Complement; Computer software; Data; Demography; Developing Countries; Development; Disparate; Doctor of Philosophy; Economic Models; Economics; Educational process of instructing; Educational workshop; Elderly; Environmental Exposure; Environmental Health; Exposure to; Faculty; Family Sizes; Feedback; Fertility; Foundations; Funding; Future; Geoscience; Goals; Health; Health Policy; Heart; Heterogeneity; Humidity; India; Inequality; Infant Mortality; Letters; Life; Life Table Estimate; Life Table Models; Light; Literature; Malnutrition; Medical; Mentors; Mentorship; Methods; Modeling; Mothers; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Neonatal Mortality; Nutrition Policy; Nutritional; Overnutrition; Pattern; Policies; Policy Making; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Projection; Population Sciences; Positioning Attribute; Public Health; Research; Research Support; Resolution; Risk; Rural; Scientist; Series; Surveys; Training; United States National Academy of Sciences; Universities; Visit; Weather; career development; climate change; climate policy; cohort; econometrics; empowerment; environmental change; experience; health economics; improved; infant death; insight; member; mortality; mortality risk; mother nutrition; neonatal death; nutrition; policy implication; programs; supercomputer; symposium; theories; tool; trend; weather patterns

Project Summary In 1960, 12% of babies worldwide died in their first year of life; this fell to only 3% in 2015. How will infant mortality in the developing world continue to change, as environmental and nutritional factors change? Puzzles remain about today’s heterogeneity in neonatal mortality (NNM), even as changing environmental exposures (such as to heat and humidity) and trends in maternal nutrition portend changes in future global patterns of neonatal death. Policy-making and public health depend on accurate projections of NNM under alternative scenarios. This five-year project will position me to pursue a new research agenda in the population science of NNM in the developing world and to project its future in changing environmental and nutritional contexts. My mentorship will be led by Mentor Joe Potter of the UT PRC (who will teach demographic coursework at UT), with co-Mentor Michel Guillot of the Penn PSC: both are experts on early-life mortality in developing countries. First (Aim 1), during and as a foundational part of training, I will examine demographic literature on neonatal death in developing countries, using new data from surveys and co-Mentor’s related R01 on age of child death. Co-Mentor Michel Guillot’s NICHD-funded project is assembling data on exact age of death. Age at death is informative about the causes of NNM in Aims 2 and 3. Then (Aim 2), I will project consequences of future weather changes for neonatal death, fertility, and population dynamics; to do this, I will first estimate causal effects of changing weather patterns in the developing world on NNM. As part of this Aim and at the heart of this project, I will use demographic methods to project effects of future weather changes. Critically, in the last step of Aim 2, I will use these results (and new training in cohort-level demographic projections from Aim 1) to improve the demographic sub-modules of leading climate-economy models for policy-making; the National Academy of Science recently highlighted such modules as a key research gap in policy-making for environmental public health. Finally (Aim 3), I will project consequences for NNM of changing patterns of maternal nutrition and family size, applying new estimates of the causal effect. Although my training in economics at Princeton University and experience studying child health while living in India are valuable foundations for this research, fulfilling these goals would not be possible without career development in the methods, theories, and insights of demography – which has not yet been part of my training. These Aims will prepare me to then pursue R01 support as an independent population scientist who will combine economics and demography to inform policy about public health and environmental exposures in the developing world.

项目摘要 1960年，全球有12%的婴儿在出生后第一年死亡；2015年，这一比例下降到只有3%。婴儿将如何 随着环境和营养因素的变化，发展中国家的死亡率也在继续变化？ 关于今天新生儿死亡率(NNM)的异质性仍然令人困惑，即使环境变化 母亲营养方面的暴露(如高温和潮湿)和趋势预示着未来全球 新生儿死亡模式。政策制定和公共卫生有赖于对以下情况下的NNM的准确预测 另一种方案。这项为期五年的项目将使我能够在 NNM在发展中世界的人口科学，并在变化的环境和环境中预测其未来 营养状况。 我的导师将由德克萨斯大学中国分校的乔·波特指导(他将在 与宾夕法尼亚大学PSC的共同导师Michel Guillot：两人都是发展中国家早期生命死亡率方面的专家 国家。首先(目标1)，在培训期间，作为培训的基础部分，我将研究关于以下内容的人口统计文献 发展中国家的新生儿死亡率，使用来自调查和共同导师的有关年龄的R01的新数据 儿童死亡。共同导师Michel Guillot的NICHD资助的项目正在收集关于确切死亡年龄的数据。年龄 At Death是关于目标2和目标3中NNM的原因的信息。然后(目标2)，我将预测 未来天气变化对新生儿死亡率、生育率和人口动态的影响；为此，我将首先估计 发展中世界天气模式变化对NNM的因果影响。作为这一目标的一部分， 作为这个项目的核心，我将使用人口统计学方法来预测未来天气变化的影响。关键的是，在 在目标2的最后一步，我将使用这些结果(以及来自 目的1)改进用于决策的主要气候-经济模型的人口子模块； 美国国家科学院最近强调，这些模块是制定政策的一个关键研究空白 环境公共卫生。最后(目标3)，我将预测NNM改变模式的后果 产妇营养和家庭规模，应用新的因果效应估计。 虽然我在普林斯顿大学接受的经济学培训和在美国生活期间研究儿童健康的经历 印度是这项研究的宝贵基础，没有职业生涯就不可能实现这些目标 在人口学的方法、理论和见解方面的发展--这还不是我 训练。这些目标将使我做好准备，然后作为一名独立的人口科学家寻求R01的支持 将结合经济学和人口学，向政策提供有关公共卫生和环境暴露的信息 发展中世界。

项目成果

Research Note: Intergenerational Transmission Is Not Sufficient for Positive Long-Term Population Growth.

研究报告：代际传递不足以实现人口长期积极增长。

• DOI: 10.1215/00703370-10290429
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Demography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Arenberg,Samuel;Kuruc,Kevin;Franz,Nathan;Vyas,Sangita;Lawson,Nicholas;LoPalo,Melissa;Budolfson,Mark;Geruso,Michael;Spears,Dean
• 通讯作者: Spears,Dean