Projecting the future of early life mortality in the developing world

项目摘要 1960年，全世界有12%的婴儿在出生后的第一年内死亡;这一比例在2015年下降到3%。如何将婴儿 随着环境和营养因素的变化，发展中国家的死亡率继续变化？ 关于今天新生儿死亡率（NNM）的异质性，即使随着环境的变化， 暴露（如高温和潮湿）和产妇营养的趋势预示着未来全球气候的变化。 新生儿死亡的模式。决策和公共卫生取决于NNM的准确预测， 替代方案。这个为期五年的项目将使我能够在未来几年内追求一个新的研究议程。 在发展中国家的NNM人口科学，并预测其未来在不断变化的环境和 营养环境。 我的导师将由UT PRC的导师Joe Potter领导（他将在 UT），与宾夕法尼亚州PSC的共同导师Michel Guillot：两人都是发展中国家早期死亡率的专家。 国家首先（目标1），作为培训的基础部分，我将研究以下人口统计学文献： 发展中国家新生儿死亡率，使用来自调查的新数据和共同导师关于年龄的相关R 01 儿童死亡。共同导师Michel Guillot的NICHD资助项目正在收集关于确切死亡年龄的数据。年龄 在目标2和3中，死亡时的死亡率可提供关于NNM原因的信息。然后（目标2），我将预测 未来的天气变化对新生儿死亡，生育率和人口动态的影响;要做到这一点，我将首先估计 发展中国家天气模式变化对NNM的因果影响。作为这一目标的一部分， 作为这个项目的核心，我将使用人口统计学方法来预测未来天气变化的影响。人伤势严重 目标2的最后一步，我将使用这些结果（以及从2010年开始的队列级人口预测的新培训）， 目标1）改进主要气候经济模型的人口统计子模块，以供决策之用; 美国国家科学院最近强调，这些模块是决策方面的一个关键研究空白， 环境公共卫生。最后（目标3），我将预测NNM的变化模式的后果。 产妇营养和家庭规模，应用新的因果关系估计。 尽管我在普林斯顿大学接受过经济学的训练，并在美国生活期间研究过儿童健康问题， 印度是这项研究的宝贵基础，没有职业生涯就不可能实现这些目标。 发展的方法，理论，和人口学的见解-这还没有成为我的一部分， 训练这些目标将使我做好准备，然后作为一名独立的人口科学家寻求R 01的支持， 将联合收割机经济学和人口统计学相结合，为公共卫生和环境暴露政策提供信息， 发展中国家的团结合作

Project Summary In 1960, 12% of babies worldwide died in their first year of life; this fell to only 3% in 2015. How will infant mortality in the developing world continue to change, as environmental and nutritional factors change? Puzzles remain about today’s heterogeneity in neonatal mortality (NNM), even as changing environmental exposures (such as to heat and humidity) and trends in maternal nutrition portend changes in future global patterns of neonatal death. Policy-making and public health depend on accurate projections of NNM under alternative scenarios. This five-year project will position me to pursue a new research agenda in the population science of NNM in the developing world and to project its future in changing environmental and nutritional contexts. My mentorship will be led by Mentor Joe Potter of the UT PRC (who will teach demographic coursework at UT), with co-Mentor Michel Guillot of the Penn PSC: both are experts on early-life mortality in developing countries. First (Aim 1), during and as a foundational part of training, I will examine demographic literature on neonatal death in developing countries, using new data from surveys and co-Mentor’s related R01 on age of child death. Co-Mentor Michel Guillot’s NICHD-funded project is assembling data on exact age of death. Age at death is informative about the causes of NNM in Aims 2 and 3. Then (Aim 2), I will project consequences of future weather changes for neonatal death, fertility, and population dynamics; to do this, I will first estimate causal effects of changing weather patterns in the developing world on NNM. As part of this Aim and at the heart of this project, I will use demographic methods to project effects of future weather changes. Critically, in the last step of Aim 2, I will use these results (and new training in cohort-level demographic projections from Aim 1) to improve the demographic sub-modules of leading climate-economy models for policy-making; the National Academy of Science recently highlighted such modules as a key research gap in policy-making for environmental public health. Finally (Aim 3), I will project consequences for NNM of changing patterns of maternal nutrition and family size, applying new estimates of the causal effect. Although my training in economics at Princeton University and experience studying child health while living in India are valuable foundations for this research, fulfilling these goals would not be possible without career development in the methods, theories, and insights of demography – which has not yet been part of my training. These Aims will prepare me to then pursue R01 support as an independent population scientist who will combine economics and demography to inform policy about public health and environmental exposures in the developing world.