NATURAL SAMPLE SPACES AND JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

判断不确定事件的概率对于有效地 决策。 然而，人们在他们的生活中犯了许多系统性错误。 对概率的直觉判断。 这些错误阻碍了重要 人们每天做的决定，比如医疗诊断， 政治和法律的决策以及未来规划。 的 拟议研究的具体目标是评估和探索 Gavanski和Hui（在 按下）理解概率的直觉判断。 加万斯基 Hui和Hui认为准确和不准确的概率 判断可以根据什么样的信息来理解人们 从记忆中获取判断。 拟议的研究将（a） 测试框架的一些基本假设，（B）应用 理解认知组织过程的框架 (i.e.,记忆中信息的分类）影响人们的 判断各种可能性的能力，以及（c）评估新的 对人们在何种条件下会做出 准确或不准确的概率判断。 长期 拟议研究的目的是了解如何 人们判断概率以及何时和为什么会犯判断错误。 在 此外，研究将导致任务的确定， 特别是可能引起判断错误和发展 改善人们判断和决策的技术。

Judging the probability of uncertain events is essential for effective decision making. Yet people make many systematic errors in their intuitive judgments of probability. These errors impede important decisions that people make on a daily basis, such as medical diagnoses, political and legal policy-making, and planning for the future. The specific aims of the proposed research are to evaluate and explore the implications of a conceptual framework developed by Gavanski and Hui (in press) for understanding intuitive judgments of probability. Gavanski and Hui have argued that both accurate and inaccurate probability judgments can be understood according to what sets of information people access from memory for the judgments. The proposed research will (a) test some basic assumptions underlying the framework, (b) apply the framework to understanding the processes by which cognitive organization (i.e., the categorization of information in memory) influences people's ability to judge various probabilities, and (c) evaluate novel predictions of the framework for conditions under which people will make either accurate or inaccurate judgments of probability. The long-term objective of the proposed research is to provide an understanding of how people judge probability and when and why they make judgment errors. In addition, the research will lead to the identification of tasks particularly likely to evoke judgment errors and to the development of techniques for improving people's judgments and decisions.