Using Policy Variation to Identify and Estimate a Structural Model of Retirement

描述(申请人提供)：这个项目旨在通过使用行政数据、准实验变量和结构估计的独特组合来分析退休福利的劳动力供应效应，以建立在经济学中现有的退休文献的基础上。标准经济学理论强调，退休福利可以通过两个渠道影响退休决策：通过终身收入的变化(收入效应)和通过继续工作的边际激励因素的变化(价格效应)。区分这些影响对于理解美国和其他国家拟议的社会保障改革的福利和效率后果也很重要。然而，由于之前的研究缺乏足够的数据或识别所需的变量，这些影响尚未得到经验上的证实。我们对收入和价格影响的单独识别是基于1984年至2003年奥地利多项国家养老金改革的差异。这种国家层面的差异对指导美国和其他国家的社会保障改革最有意义。这些改革在养老金财富和继续工作的边际激励方面产生了多个独立的变化，从而能够确定收入和价格影响。以前的工作依赖于观测数据，而不是这种政策变化，因此很难将预测解释为因果效应。除了克服这一困难之外，我们还将把这种变化嵌入到结构模型中，而不是简化的形式上下文中。因此，我们的经验策略强调如何使用准实验变化来识别结构参数，而不是约化形式系数。我们将估计一个允许财富积累的退休动态规划模型。联合建模储蓄和退休决策对于现实地捕捉退休福利的劳动力供应影响是重要的。本项目将强调使用准实验变化进行结构估计的重要性，并阐明对储蓄的建模假设如何影响退休福利的估计收入和价格影响。公共卫生相关性：该项目将使用行政数据、准实验变量和结构估计的独特组合来研究退休福利的劳动力供应效应。虽然之前的研究受到较小样本量和观测数据的限制，但我们将利用这些数据和变量来识别和估计具有内生储蓄的退休动态规划模型。本项目将强调准实验变化对估计的重要性，并阐明对储蓄的建模假设如何影响对退休福利的收入和价格影响的估计。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to build on the existing retirement literature within economics by using a unique combination of administrative data, quasi-experimental variation and structural estimation to analyze the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. Standard economic theory highlights two channels through which retirement benefits can affect retirement decisions: through changes in lifetime income (income effect) and through changes in the marginal incentives for continuing work (price effect). Distinguishing between these effects is important for understanding the welfare and efficiency consequences of proposed social security reforms in the United States and other countries as well. However, these effects have not yet been empirically established since previous studies have lacked sufficient data or variation necessary for identification. Our separate identification of both the income and price effects is based on variation from multiple, national pension reforms in Austria between 1984 and 2003. This national level of variation is most relevant for guiding social security reform in the United States and other countries. These reforms create multiple independent changes in pension wealth and the marginal incentives for continuing work, thereby allowing for identification of the income and price effects. Previous work has relied on observational data rather than such policy variation thereby making it difficult to interpret the predictions as causal effects. In addition to overcoming this difficulty, we will embed this variation in a structural model rather than a reduced form context. Thus, our empirical strategy emphasizes how quasi-experimental variation can be used to identify structural parameters rather than reduced form coefficients. We will estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that allows for wealth accumulation. Jointly modeling savings and retirement decisions is important to capture realistically the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. This project will highlight the significance of using quasi-experimental variation for structural estimation and elucidate how modeling assumption for savings affect the estimated income and price effects from retirement benefits. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will use a unique combination of administrative data, quasi-experimental variation and structural estimation to study the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. While previous studies have been limited by smaller sample sizes and observational data, we will use this data and variation to identify and estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement with endogenous savings. This project will highlight the importance of quasi-experimental variation for estimation and also elucidate how modeling assumptions for savings affect estimates of the income and price effects of retirement benefits.