MARKERS AND MODIFICATION OF EARLY READING FAILURE

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的目的是提高阅读失败的早期识别筛查的精确度，并确定二级预防改变其概率的程度。在一个文化程度很高的社会里，阅读失败的情感和经济后果代表了一个公共健康问题。尽管全国对阅读失败的问题给予了前所未有的关注，但准确识别谁会和谁不会表现出早期阅读失败的模型并不存在。潜在的标记变量的数量是众多的，但尚未协调成一个有凝聚力的系统，在理论上是强大的和系统的测试。此外，基于研究的阅读干预的持续时间及其对高危儿童的长期影响也很少被研究。两个研究问题的目的是解决过去的研究的局限性：（a）是早期识别筛选的精度提高，结合流畅性和增长的措施;（B）是否阅读失败的概率定义的早期识别屏幕交互教学持续时间修改阅读失败的风险立即和纵向？该设计的一个新颖方面是将连续阅读失败的风险定义为概率水平，而不是二分法。该研究计划采用了多队列设计，其中选择了三个连续的一年级儿童队列（N=250-300年）。在第一年，早期识别筛选测试的指标包括作为点估计（静态测量）和跨时间（增长测量）收集的准确性和流畅性指标。我们推测，缺乏对流利性和成长的关注阻碍了过去的早期识别工作。多元回归和优势分析被用来评估连续测量的阅读的影响，并减少变量集。逻辑回归用于开发最佳拟合算法以预测阅读失败并产生概率。该算法应用于第2年和第3年，以识别失败概率较高的儿童（N=180）。这些儿童被分配到一个没有治疗控制或干预，持续10周或16周。持续时间是不同的，以了解什么是获得和损失的干预长度通常用于阅读干预研究。所有三个队列都使用诊断组合随访到三年级。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The purpose of this investigation is to improve the precision of early identification screening for reading failure and to determine the extent to which secondary prevention modifies its probability. The emotional and economic sequelae of reading failure in a highly literate society represent a public health concern. Despite the unprecedented national attention given to the problem of reading failure, a model that accurately identifies who will and who will not exhibit early reading failure does not exist. The number of potential marker variables are legion but have yet to be coordinated into a cohesive system that is theoretically robust and systematically tested. In addition, the duration of research-based reading intervention and its long term effects on at-risk children are rarely studied. Two research questions are designed to address the limitations of past research: (a) Is the precision of early identification screening improved by incorporating fluency and growth measures; and (b) Does the probability of reading failure defined by the early identification screen interact with instructional duration to modify the risk of reading failure both immediately and longitudinally? A novel aspect of the design is defining risk of reading failure continuously as probability level rather than dichotomously. The research plan incorporates a multiple cohort design in which three successive cohorts of first grade children are selected (N=250-300 across years). In Year 1, measures tested for the early identification screen include accuracy and fluency measures collected as point estimates (static measurement) and across time (growth measurement). We hypothesize that the lack of attention to fluency and growth has hampered past early identification efforts. Multiple regression and dominance analysis are used to assess impact on reading measured continuously and to reduce the variable set. Logistic regression is used to develop the best fitting algorithm to predict reading failure and produce probabilities. This algorithm is applied in Years 2 and 3 to identify children with higher probabilities of failure (N=180). These children are assigned to a no treatment control or to intervention that lasts 10 weeks or 16 weeks. Duration is varied to understand what is gained and lost by the intervention lengths typically used in reading intervention research. All three cohorts are followed through third grade with the diagnostic battery.