Forecasting the Cardiovascular Disease Epidemic in China

描述（由申请人提供）：目前的建议是职业发展奖（K 08）的申请。申请人是一名新的研究人员，接受过医学和心血管疾病（CVD）流行病学方面的培训。申请人的研究将集中在发展中国家的心血管疾病流行的曙光，并将首先集中在中国未来的心血管疾病。中国是世界上人口最多的国家，正在经历着惊人的经济增长和城市化进程。中国人口正在老龄化，心血管疾病风险因素（即高血压、血脂异常、超重和糖尿病）水平正在增加，而中国男性吸烟率仍约为60%。年龄和心血管疾病危险因素的趋势预计将导致心血管疾病在中国的流行，但问题的规模和最佳预防措施尚不清楚。申请人建议建立在美国经验证的CVD预测模型的基础上，以预测CVD在中国的流行，并确定预防性干预措施。 目前的提案将有助于发展申请人成为国际心血管疾病流行病学和政策研究领域的独立调查员。职业发展/培训活动包括心血管疾病流行预测，决策分析，成本效益，概率统计，卫生经济学，计算机建模和研究的道德行为的指导培训。该研究计划建议将候选人培养为发展中国家建立CVD政策计算机模型的专家，方法是：1）在美国已建立的模型框架上，使用特定国家的数据调整和校准中国的冠心病预测模型，以及2）通过将中风预测和中风状态添加到中国模型中来构建扩展的CVD政策模型。 这项拟议中的研究将描述心血管疾病在老龄化、经济发展中国家（如中国）的深远影响。该研究计划有可能利用美国控制CVD的经验来限制其他国家的CVD负担。在冠心病模型中添加中风成分将创建一个CVD政策模型，该模型将在美国应用。完成该奖项将为候选人竞争R 01资金做好准备，以开发适用于多个国家的CVD预测模型。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The current proposal is an application for a Career Development Award (K08). The applicant is a new researcher with training in medicine and cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemiology. The applicant's research will focus on the dawning CVD epidemic in developing nations, and will first focus on future CVD in China. China, the most populous of nations, is undergoing extraordinary economic growth and urbanization. The Chinese population is aging, and levels of CVD risk factors, i.e. hypertension, dyslipidemia, overweight, and diabetes are increasing, while the prevalence of smoking remains approximately 60% in Chinese men. The trends in age and CVD risk factors are expected to result in a CVD epidemic in china, but the scale of the problem and the best measures to prevent it are unknown. The applicant proposes to build upon a validated CVD prediction model from the U.S. in order to forecast the epidemic of CVD in China, and identify preventative interventions. The current proposal will serve to develop the applicant into an independent investigator in the field of international CVD epidemiology and policy research. The career development/training activities include mentored training in CVD epidemic forecasting, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, probabilistic statistics, health economics, computer modeling, and the ethical conduct of research. The research plan proposes to develop the candidate as an expert in building CVD policy computer models for developing countries through 1) using country-specific data to adapt and calibrate a coronary heart disease prediction model for China upon the framework of an established model from the U.S., and 2) building an expanded CVD policy model by adding stroke prediction and stroke states to the China model. The proposed research will describe the profound impact of CVD in aging, economically developing nations like China. The research plan has the potential to use the U.S. experience with controlling CVD to limit the burden of CVD in other nations. Adding a stroke component the coronary heart disease model will create a CVD policy model that will have applications in the U.S. Completion of this award will prepare the candidate to compete for R01 funding toward the development of a CVD prediction model adaptable to multiple countries.