Forecasting the Cardiovascular Disease Epidemic in China

描述（由申请人提供）：目前的提案是职业发展奖（K08）的申请。申请人是医学和心血管疾病（CVD）流行病学培训的新研究员。申请人的研究将侧重于发展中国家的心血管疾病流行，并将首先关注中国未来的心血管疾病。中国是世界上人口最多的国家，正经历着非凡的经济增长和城市化进程。中国人口正在老龄化，心血管疾病的危险因素，如高血压、血脂异常、超重和糖尿病的水平正在增加，而中国男性的吸烟率仍约为60%。年龄和心血管疾病危险因素的趋势预计将导致中国心血管疾病的流行，但问题的规模和最佳预防措施尚不清楚。申请人拟以美国的CVD预测模型为基础，预测中国CVD的流行，并确定预防措施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The current proposal is an application for a Career Development Award (K08). The applicant is a new researcher with training in medicine and cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemiology. The applicant's research will focus on the dawning CVD epidemic in developing nations, and will first focus on future CVD in China. China, the most populous of nations, is undergoing extraordinary economic growth and urbanization. The Chinese population is aging, and levels of CVD risk factors, i.e. hypertension, dyslipidemia, overweight, and diabetes are increasing, while the prevalence of smoking remains approximately 60% in Chinese men. The trends in age and CVD risk factors are expected to result in a CVD epidemic in china, but the scale of the problem and the best measures to prevent it are unknown. The applicant proposes to build upon a validated CVD prediction model from the U.S. in order to forecast the epidemic of CVD in China, and identify preventative interventions. The current proposal will serve to develop the applicant into an independent investigator in the field of international CVD epidemiology and policy research. The career development/training activities include mentored training in CVD epidemic forecasting, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, probabilistic statistics, health economics, computer modeling, and the ethical conduct of research. The research plan proposes to develop the candidate as an expert in building CVD policy computer models for developing countries through 1) using country-specific data to adapt and calibrate a coronary heart disease prediction model for China upon the framework of an established model from the U.S., and 2) building an expanded CVD policy model by adding stroke prediction and stroke states to the China model. The proposed research will describe the profound impact of CVD in aging, economically developing nations like China. The research plan has the potential to use the U.S. experience with controlling CVD to limit the burden of CVD in other nations. Adding a stroke component the coronary heart disease model will create a CVD policy model that will have applications in the U.S. Completion of this award will prepare the candidate to compete for R01 funding toward the development of a CVD prediction model adaptable to multiple countries.