Forecasting the Cardiovascular Disease Epidemic in China

中国心血管疾病流行预测

• 批准号: 8268431
• 负责人: Andrew Edward Moran
• 金额: $ 13万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2014-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8268431
• 关键词: Adverse effects; Age; Aging; American; American Medical Association; Award; Blood Circulation; Budgets; Cardiovascular Diseases; China; Chinese People; Computer Simulation; Coronary heart disease; Country; Data; Decision Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Disease model; Dyslipidemias; Economic Development; Economics; Epidemic; Epidemiologic Studies; Epidemiology; Ethics; Event; Funding; Future; Goals; Growth; Guidelines; Health; Health Policy; Healthcare; Heart failure; Hypertension; Incidence; Individual; Internal Medicine; International; Intervention; Journals; K-Series Research Career Programs; Knowledge; Life Expectancy; Living Standards; Measures; Medicine; Mentors; Methods; Modeling; New England; Overweight; Passive Smoking; Policies; Policy Research; Population; Population Growth; Prevalence; Preventive Intervention; Publications; Relative (related person); Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Risk Factors; Screening procedure; Smoking; Stroke; Taxation; Tobacco; Tobacco use; Training; Training Activity; Urbanization; Woman; Workplace; aging population; base; cardiovascular disorder prevention; cardiovascular disorder risk; career development; cost effective; cost effectiveness; economic cost; economic impact; experience; falls; health economics; high risk; improved; men; prevent; skills; smoking prevalence; social; statistics; trend; urban area; user-friendly

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The current proposal is an application for a Career Development Award (K08). The applicant is a new researcher with training in medicine and cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemiology. The applicant's research will focus on the dawning CVD epidemic in developing nations, and will first focus on future CVD in China. China, the most populous of nations, is undergoing extraordinary economic growth and urbanization. The Chinese population is aging, and levels of CVD risk factors, i.e. hypertension, dyslipidemia, overweight, and diabetes are increasing, while the prevalence of smoking remains approximately 60% in Chinese men. The trends in age and CVD risk factors are expected to result in a CVD epidemic in china, but the scale of the problem and the best measures to prevent it are unknown. The applicant proposes to build upon a validated CVD prediction model from the U.S. in order to forecast the epidemic of CVD in China, and identify preventative interventions. The current proposal will serve to develop the applicant into an independent investigator in the field of international CVD epidemiology and policy research. The career development/training activities include mentored training in CVD epidemic forecasting, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, probabilistic statistics, health economics, computer modeling, and the ethical conduct of research. The research plan proposes to develop the candidate as an expert in building CVD policy computer models for developing countries through 1) using country-specific data to adapt and calibrate a coronary heart disease prediction model for China upon the framework of an established model from the U.S., and 2) building an expanded CVD policy model by adding stroke prediction and stroke states to the China model. The proposed research will describe the profound impact of CVD in aging, economically developing nations like China. The research plan has the potential to use the U.S. experience with controlling CVD to limit the burden of CVD in other nations. Adding a stroke component the coronary heart disease model will create a CVD policy model that will have applications in the U.S. Completion of this award will prepare the candidate to compete for R01 funding toward the development of a CVD prediction model adaptable to multiple countries.

描述（由申请人提供）：当前提案是职业发展奖（K08）的申请。申请人是一位接受过医学和心血管疾病（CVD）流行病学培训的新研究人员。申请人的研究将集中于发展中国家即将出现的CVD流行，并将首先关注中国未来的CVD。中国作为人口最多的国家，正在经历非凡的经济增长和城市化进程。中国人口老龄化，高血压、血脂异常、超重、糖尿病等心血管疾病危险因素不断增加，而中国男性吸烟率仍保持在60%左右。年龄和CVD危险因素的趋势预计将导致CVD在中国流行，但问题的严重程度和最佳预防措施尚不清楚。申请人建议以美国经过验证的CVD预测模型为基础，预测中国CVD的流行情况，并确定预防干预措施。 目前的提案将有助于将申请人培养成为国际CVD流行病学和政策研究领域的独立研究者。职业发展/培训活动包括心血管疾病流行预测、决策分析、成本效益、概率统计、卫生经济学、计算机建模和研究道德行为方面的指导培训。该研究计划建议通过以下方式培养候选人成为为发展中国家建立CVD政策计算机模型的专家：1）在美国已建立的模型框架上，使用特定国家的数据来调整和校准中国的冠心病预测模型，2）通过在中国模型中添加卒中预测和卒中状态来建立扩展的CVD政策模型。 拟议的研究将描述心血管疾病对中国等老龄化经济发展中国家的深远影响。该研究计划有可能利用美国控制CVD的经验来限制其他国家的CVD负担。在冠心病模型中添加中风成分将创建一个 CVD 政策模型，该模型将在美国应用。完成该奖项将使候选人准备好竞争 R01 资金，以开发适用于多个国家的 CVD 预测模型。

项目成果

Cost-effectiveness of optimal use of acute myocardial infarction treatments and impact on coronary heart disease mortality in China.

最佳使用急性心肌梗塞治疗的成本效益以及对中国冠心病死亡率的影响。

• DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.113.000674
• 发表时间: 2014-01
• 期刊: Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes
• 作者: Wang M;Moran AE;Liu J;Coxson PG;Heidenreich PA;Gu D;He J;Goldman L;Zhao D
• 通讯作者: Zhao D

The global burden of ischemic heart disease in 1990 and 2010: the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.

• DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.113.004046
• 发表时间: 2014-04-08
• 期刊: Circulation
• 影响因子: 37.8
• 作者: Moran AE;Forouzanfar MH;Roth GA;Mensah GA;Ezzati M;Flaxman A;Murray CJ;Naghavi M
• 通讯作者: Naghavi M

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease: a comparative risk assessment.

• DOI: 10.1186/1741-7015-11-250
• 发表时间: 2013-11-26
• 期刊: BMC medicine
• 影响因子: 9.3
• 作者: Charlson FJ;Moran AE;Freedman G;Norman RE;Stapelberg NJ;Baxter AJ;Vos T;Whiteford HA
• 通讯作者: Whiteford HA

Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China.

中国城市空气污染控制对心血管和总死亡率的潜在益处

• DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.116.026487
• 发表时间: 2017-10-24
• 期刊: Circulation
• 影响因子: 37.8
• 作者: Huang C;Moran AE;Coxson PG;Yang X;Liu F;Cao J;Chen K;Wang M;He J;Goldman L;Zhao D;Kinney PL;Gu D
• 通讯作者: Gu D

Ischemic Heart Disease Worldwide, 1990 to 2013: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

• DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.115.002007
• 发表时间: 2015-07
• 期刊: Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes
• 作者: Shepard D;VanderZanden A;Moran A;Naghavi M;Murray C;Roth G
• 通讯作者: Roth G