The Impact of Drought on Arsenic Exposure and Cardiometabolic Outcomes in a Rural Aging Population

干旱对农村老龄人口砷暴露和心脏代谢结果的影响

• 批准号: 10631234
• 负责人: Matthew O. Gribble
• 金额: $ 58.65万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-05 至 2026-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10631234
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Advisory Committees; Aging; Arsenic; Biological Markers; California; Cardiometabolic Disease; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cause of Death; Climate; Cohort Studies; Colorado; Communication; Communities; Data; Diabetes Mellitus; Discipline; Disease Outcome; Droughts; Ecosystem; Education; Elderly; Eligibility Determination; Environmental Health; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Future; Health; Health Benefit; Hispanic; Human; Incidence; Individual; Intervention; Knowledge; Learning Module; Life Expectancy; Link; Literature; Machine Learning; Measurement; Measures; Mediating; Mediation; Medicare claim; Mentored Clinical Scientist Development Program; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Natural Disasters; Nested Case-Control Study; Not Hispanic or Latino; Outcome; Participant; Persons; Population; Public Health; Pump; Quality of life; Recommendation; Recording of previous events; Research; Residual state; Resources; Retrospective cohort study; Risk; Role; Rural; STEM career; Sampling; Schools; Science; Scientist; Source; Statistical Methods; Time; Toxicology; Uncertainty; United States; Urine; Visit; Water; Woman; Work; aging population; biological sex; cardiometabolism; case control; clay; climate change; climate-related health; cohort; community engaged research; cost; density; design; disorder risk; drinking water; empowerment; epidemiological model; exposure pathway; extreme weather; geochemistry; ground water; hydrology; innovation; insight; interdisciplinary approach; meetings; member; men; mortality; novel strategies; outreach; population based; preventive intervention; programs; prospective; remote sensing; resilience; secondary analysis; sex; simulation; spatiotemporal; tool; water conservation; water quality; weather-related disaster

Project Summary / Abstract Droughts are an important natural disaster but the health implications for elderly populations in the United States have not been extensively studied. This study seeks to provide evidence on the cardiometabolic health risks posed by drought. Droughts can contribute to groundwater over-pumping, and this may in turn lead to arsenic release from aquifer clays into drinking water sources. The impacts of drought on arsenic exposure and resultant health outcomes in human populations are potentially important and this study seeks to address that knowledge gap. We propose to conduct a retrospective cohort study using data from the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study, as well as hydrogeological measurements of water and environmental conditions in the San Luis Valley, to clarify relationships between drought, arsenic in water, arsenic exposure (as measured by urine biomarker), and cardiometabolic health outcomes including incident diabetes (DM), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. This work is community-engaged and includes a K12 outreach component. Aim 1 quantifies the relationship of drought to individual arsenic exposures and thence to incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality. Aim 2 generates a model for groundwater arsenic as a function of hydrological predictors using machine learning approaches, and uses this to explore relationships between drought, modeled water arsenic and the outcomes of Aim 1. Aim 3 estimates the association between cumulative arsenic exposure and incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality, using a nested case-control design and predictions over time of arsenic exposure from the Aim 2 model. Aim 4 is a simulation study projecting future CVD and DM outcomes under different scenarios of drought conditions, with and without counterfactual interventions to reduce drinking water arsenic.

项目摘要/摘要 干旱是一种重要的自然灾害，但对美国老年人口的健康影响 各国还没有得到广泛的研究。本研究旨在为心脏代谢健康提供证据。 干旱带来的风险。干旱可能会导致地下水过度开采，这可能反过来导致 砷从含水层粘土中释放到饮用水水源中。干旱对砷暴露的影响 以及由此产生的人类健康结果具有潜在的重要意义，这项研究试图解决 这种知识鸿沟。我们建议使用圣路易斯河谷的数据进行一项回溯性队列研究 糖尿病研究，以及对圣彼得堡水和环境条件的水文地质测量 路易斯山谷，以澄清干旱、水中的砷、砷暴露(以尿液衡量)之间的关系 生物标志物)和心脏代谢健康结果，包括糖尿病(DM)、心血管疾病 疾病(心血管疾病)和全因死亡。这项工作是社区参与的，包括K12外展 组件。目标1量化干旱与个人砷暴露及其与事件的关系 心血管疾病、糖尿病发病率和死亡率。目标2生成地下水砷作为以下函数的模型 使用机器学习方法的水文预报器，并用它来探索 干旱、模拟水砷和目标1的结果。目标3估计两者之间的联系 采用嵌套式病例对照设计的累积砷暴露与心血管疾病、糖尿病事件和死亡率 以及来自Aim 2模型的随着时间推移的砷暴露预测。目标4是一项模拟研究计划 在不同干旱条件下，有反事实和无反事实两种情况下的未来心血管疾病和糖尿病结果 减少饮用水砷的干预措施。