Using Wearable Devices and Machine Learning to Forecast Preschool Tantrums and Identify Clinically Significant Variants.

项目摘要 在生命的最初几年出现的情绪和行为问题往往会持续到以后的发展阶段。 阶段和成年期，导致重大损害和社会成本。然而，出现的迹象表明， 很难将精神病理学与儿童早期的规范性不当行为区分开来， “担心”的问题。具体来说，早期的主要行为表现 精神病理学，发脾气（例如，尖叫，跺脚，打人），既是一个transdiagnosis症状， 幼儿通常表现出无数的障碍和对挫折的规范反应。原因不明 以及临床上显著的与正常的发脾气是如何不同的，因为缺乏研究来捕捉这种复杂的情况， 在发脾气之前和期间，孩子和护理人员都会发生实时的生物行为变化。 调查家庭环境中发生的发脾气的特征的研究，在多个层面上， 分析，有可能区分临床与规范性发脾气的变种，并确定一个前兆阶段， 发脾气可能会转化为未来的干预措施。拟议研究的具体目的是 根据儿童的脾气特点，区分有无精神病理学的儿童， 使用实时数据准确预测未来的脾气。为了实现这些目标，研究小组 开发并成功试用了一款定制的智能手表应用程序，旨在精确地显示发病时间， 在真实的时间内抵消发脾气，并与一系列可穿戴和非接触式设备同步测量 心率、呼吸、运动和声音特征的变化。60对双胞胎，其中50%的人 符合DSM 5疾病标准的患者将被招募。发脾气和生物行为信号将持续 在家中记录一个月，照顾者和儿童过着正常的生活。常规统计 建模和尖端的机器学习将被用来分类的存在或不存在 儿童的精神病理学，预测第二天发脾气的严重程度，并预测 在它发生之前就开始发脾气。这个项目如果成功，将产生第一个同类数据， 对临床与规范的基础上的复杂时间和生物行为过程的新理解 发脾气和设计用来在发脾气之前预测它们的算法。这些产品具有很高的潜力 重要的是，它们将使该领域转向开发下一代基于家庭的自动化系统 帮助诊断和治疗生命早期的精神疾病。

Project Summary Mood and behavior problems emerging in the first few years of life often persist across later developmental stages and into adulthood, resulting in significant impairment and societal costs. However, the emerging signs of psychopathology are difficult to differentiate from normative misbehavior in early childhood, creating a “when to worry” problem for caregivers and providers. Specifically, the cardinal behavioral manifestation of early psychopathology, the temper tantrum (e.g., screaming, stamping, hitting), is both a transdiagnostic symptom of myriad disorders and a normative response to frustration young children commonly exhibit. It is unknown why and how clinically significant vs. normative tantrums differ due to a paucity of research capturing the complex, real-time, bio-behavioral changes occurring within both the child and caregiver, prior to and during tantrums. Research investigating the characteristics of tantrums occurring in the home environment, at multiple levels of analysis, has the potential to differentiate clinical vs. normative tantrum variants, and identify a precursor phase to tantrums that could be translated into future interventions. The Specific Aims of the proposed study are to discriminate children with and without psychopathology based on the characteristics of their tantrums, and accurately forecast future tantrums using real-time data. To accomplish these aims, the study team has developed and successfully piloted a custom smart-watch app designed to precisely denote the onset and offset of tantrums in real time and synchronize with an array of wearable and contactless devices measuring heart rate, respiration, movement, and changes in vocal features. Sixty caregiver-child dyads, 50% of whom meet criteria for a DSM 5 disorder, will be recruited. Tantrums and bio-behavioral signals will be continuously recorded in the home for one month as caregivers and children live their normal lives. Conventional statistical modeling and cutting-edge machine learning will be used to classify the presence or absence of psychopathology in children, predict the severity level of the following day’s tantrums, and anticipate an individual tantrum before it occurs. This project, if successful, would produce first-of-its-kind data yielding a new understanding of the complex temporal and bio-behavioral processes underlying clinical vs. normative tantrums and algorithms designed to predict tantrums before they occur. These products are potentially highly significant as they will allow the field to pivot to developing next-generation, home-based, automated systems to assist in diagnosing and treating mental illness earlier in the lifespan.