Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Forecasting the Health Equity of Novel Tax Proposals

项目摘要/摘要 这个项目的目标是预测新的烟草税提案在一个不断演变和复杂的 烟草市场，包括这些提议如何与烟草相关的社会经济相互作用 差距和低尼古丁香烟(LNC)的引入。为此，我们制定了 试验性烟草市场(ETM)，在实施之前评估潜在政策的影响 关于烟草购买模式，包括产品间替代和多烟草购买。这个 ETM将产品、价格和特定法规的组合置于试验性控制之下，以提供估计 在模拟“真实世界”环境的条件下的政策影响。在这里，我们将此方法扩展为 研究四个新的税收提案的影响，这些提案基于以下任一种方式对产品征税：(1)平价，(2) 尼古丁含量，(3)潜在危害，或(4)食品和药物管理局指定为修饰风险 烟草产品。为了实现这些目标，我们将利用我们在行为方面的丰富经验 烟草采购的总体经济，特别是我们独特和创新的ETM，以预测 这些税收提案的影响和健康公平。具体而言，目标1将研究这四种税收的影响。 关于ETM中的烟草产品采购的建议，包括产品间替代和多烟草 购买，以实验室为基础的吸烟者样本。目标2将审查这些税收的公平性 建议通过在具有全国代表性的低、中、高三个水平的预期样本中检验其效果 社会经济地位吸烟者。最后，目标3将审查这些税收提案的影响，当LNC 引入市场，并在模拟禁止尼古丁含量较高的传统香烟的法规时 以实验室为基础的吸烟者样本的含量。总体而言，这个项目具有很高的创新性和影响力 因为它优先考虑了一条明确的转化为公共卫生政策和实践的路径。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The objective of this project is to forecast the impact of novel tobacco tax proposals in an evolving and complex tobacco marketplace, including how these proposals may interact with tobacco-related socioeconomic disparities and the introduction of low nicotine cigarettes (LNCs). Toward this end, we have developed the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) to estimate, before implementation, the effects of potential policies on patterns of tobacco purchasing, including between-product substitution and poly-tobacco purchasing. The ETM places the mix of products, prices, and specific regulations under experimental control to provide estimates of policy impact under conditions that simulate “real-world” circumstances. Here we extend this method to examine the impact of four novel tax proposals that levy taxes across products based on either: (1) parity, (2) nicotine content, (3) potential for harm, or (4) the Food and Drug Administration designation as a modified-risk tobacco product. To accomplish these objectives, we will leverage our extensive experience in the behavioral economics of tobacco purchasing, in general, and with our unique and innovative ETM, in particular, to forecast the impact and health equity of these tax proposals. Specifically, Aim 1 will examine the effects of these four tax proposals on tobacco product purchasing in the ETM, including between-product substitution and poly-tobacco purchasing, in a laboratory-based sample of cigarette smokers. Aim 2 will examine the equity of these tax proposals by testing their effects in a nationally representative prospective sample of lower, medium and higher socioeconomic status smokers. Finally, Aim 3 will examine the impact of these tax proposals when LNCs are introduced to the market and when modeling a regulation that bans conventional cigarettes with higher nicotine content in a laboratory-based sample of cigarette smokers. Overall, this project is highly innovative and impactful because it prioritizes a clear translational path into public health policy and practice.