Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Forecasting the Health Equity of Novel Tax Proposals

项目总结/摘要 该项目的目标是预测新的烟草税提案在一个不断发展和复杂的环境中的影响。 烟草市场，包括这些建议如何与烟草相关的社会经济 低尼古丁香烟（LNC）的引入。为此，我们制定了 实验烟草市场（ETM），在实施前评估潜在政策的影响 烟草购买模式，包括产品间替代和多种烟草购买。的 ETM将产品组合、价格和具体法规置于实验控制之下，以提供估计 模拟“现实世界”情况条件下的政策影响。在这里，我们将此方法扩展为 研究四种新的税收建议的影响，这些建议基于以下两种原则对产品征税：（1）平价，（2） 尼古丁含量，（3）潜在危害，或（4）食品和药物管理局指定为改良风险 烟草制品。为了实现这些目标，我们将利用我们在行为方面的丰富经验， 烟草购买的经济学，在一般情况下，并与我们独特的和创新的ETM，特别是预测 这些税收提案的影响和健康公平性。具体而言，目标1将研究这四种税收的影响 关于在ETM中购买烟草产品的建议，包括产品间替代和多种烟草 购买，在实验室为基础的吸烟者样本。目标2将审查这些税收的公平性 通过在全国代表性的低、中、高水平的前瞻性样本中测试其效果， 吸烟者的社会经济地位。最后，目标3将研究这些税收建议的影响，当LNC 在市场上推出，并在模拟禁止尼古丁含量较高的传统卷烟的法规时， 吸烟者的实验室样本中的含量。总的来说，这个项目具有很强的创新性和影响力 因为它优先考虑将明确的转化路径纳入公共卫生政策和实践。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The objective of this project is to forecast the impact of novel tobacco tax proposals in an evolving and complex tobacco marketplace, including how these proposals may interact with tobacco-related socioeconomic disparities and the introduction of low nicotine cigarettes (LNCs). Toward this end, we have developed the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) to estimate, before implementation, the effects of potential policies on patterns of tobacco purchasing, including between-product substitution and poly-tobacco purchasing. The ETM places the mix of products, prices, and specific regulations under experimental control to provide estimates of policy impact under conditions that simulate “real-world” circumstances. Here we extend this method to examine the impact of four novel tax proposals that levy taxes across products based on either: (1) parity, (2) nicotine content, (3) potential for harm, or (4) the Food and Drug Administration designation as a modified-risk tobacco product. To accomplish these objectives, we will leverage our extensive experience in the behavioral economics of tobacco purchasing, in general, and with our unique and innovative ETM, in particular, to forecast the impact and health equity of these tax proposals. Specifically, Aim 1 will examine the effects of these four tax proposals on tobacco product purchasing in the ETM, including between-product substitution and poly-tobacco purchasing, in a laboratory-based sample of cigarette smokers. Aim 2 will examine the equity of these tax proposals by testing their effects in a nationally representative prospective sample of lower, medium and higher socioeconomic status smokers. Finally, Aim 3 will examine the impact of these tax proposals when LNCs are introduced to the market and when modeling a regulation that bans conventional cigarettes with higher nicotine content in a laboratory-based sample of cigarette smokers. Overall, this project is highly innovative and impactful because it prioritizes a clear translational path into public health policy and practice.