Population-environment dynamics influencing malaria risk in the Peruvian Amazon

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请是根据通知no - hd -01-004“扩展NICHD指导研究科学家发展奖（K01）：人口研究”提交的。本次MRSDA的目标是扩大潘伟平博士在人口、环境和健康动力学领域的培训和知识，朝着成为这一不断发展的领域的专家和独立研究者的目标迈进。潘博士将通过接受遥感（RS）、生态学（媒介生态学和生物地理学）和疟疾流行病学方面的培训，以他在家庭和使用、生物统计学、多层次建模和空间分析方面的经验和专业知识为基础。这套新的技能和知识将通过明确的职业发展计划获得，包括课程作业、指导阅读和指导研究。课程和阅读将在所有领域进行，特别侧重于RS和生态学。一个由导师和合作者组成的专家组致力于帮助潘博士实现他的目标，并为他提出的指导研究提供指导。他的研究的长期目标是：(1)确定与土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）相关的家庭、社区和基础设施因素；(2)确定LULC及其决定因素与疟疾病媒存在和人类疟疾风险的关联程度，以最终控制和根除间日疟原虫。该项目检验了一个中心假设，即与附近劳改营管理的地区相比，社区定居区拥有更多样化的LULC、更少的土地清理和更好的环境管理；因此，在劳改营管理的地区，疟疾病媒密度将高于家庭定居者管理的地区。为了实现目标和检验假设，该研究建议在秘鲁北部亚马逊河沿岸的马赞河和纳波河进行人口-环境和媒介生态学研究。将合并的数据包括来自家庭和社区和劳改营关键举报人的调查信息、相关基础设施和交通网络的位置数据、时间序列遥感图像以及用于收集疟疾病媒幼虫的水体纵向样本。使用传统和贝叶斯多层框架的空间显式模型将被指定来测试假设。这项研究的结果将对整个拉丁美洲的疟疾预防和控制项目产生广泛影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application is being submitted in response to Notice NOT-HD-01-004, "Expansion of the NICHD Mentored Research Scientist Development Award (K01): Population Research." The objectives of this MRSDA are to expand Dr. William Pan's training and knowledge in the field of population, environment and health dynamics toward the goal of becoming an expert and independent investigator in this growing field. Dr. Pan will build upon his experience and expertise in household and use, biostatistics, multilevel modeling and spatial analysis by obtaining training in remote sensing (RS), ecology (vector ecology and biogeography), and malaria epidemiology. This new set of skills and knowledge will be obtained through a well-defined career development plan consisting of coursework, directed readings, and mentored research. Coursework and readings will be conducted in all areas, with a particular focus on RS and ecology. An expert group of mentors and collaborators have committed themselves to helping Dr. Pan achieve his goal and provide guidance for his proposed Mentored Research. The long-term objectives for his study are: (1) Identify household, community, and infrastructure factors associated with land use and land cover (LULC); and (2) Determine the extent to which LULC, and determinants thereof, are associated with malaria vector presence and human malaria risk towards the eventual control and eradication of P. vivax. The project tests the central hypothesis that community settlement areas have more diverse LULC, less land cleared, and better environmental management than areas managed by nearby labor camps; and therefore, malaria vector density will be greater in areas managed by labor camps than by household settlers. To achieve the objectives and test hypotheses, the study proposes to combine a population-environment and vector ecology study in the northern Peruvian Amazon along the Mazan and Napo Rivers. Data to be combined include survey information from households and key informants in communities and labor camps, locational data of relevant infrastructure and transportation networks, a time series of RS images, and a longitudinal sample of bodies of water to collect malaria vector larvae. Spatially-explicit models using traditional and Bayesian multilevel frameworks will be specified to test hypotheses. The findings from this study will have a wide impact on malaria prevention and control programs throughout Latin America.