Population-environment dynamics influencing malaria risk in the Peruvian Amazon

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请是为了响应通知NOT-HD-01-004“NICHD指导研究科学家发展奖（K 01）的扩展：人口研究”而提交的。“这个MRSDA的目标是扩大威廉潘博士在人口，环境和健康动态领域的培训和知识，以成为这个不断发展的领域的专家和独立调查员。潘博士将通过获得遥感（RS），生态学（病媒生态学和地理学）和疟疾流行病学方面的培训，在家庭和使用，生物统计学，多级建模和空间分析方面积累经验和专业知识。这套新的技能和知识将通过一个明确的职业发展计划，包括课程，指导阅读和指导研究获得。课程和阅读将在所有领域进行，特别关注RS和生态学。一个由导师和合作者组成的专家组致力于帮助潘博士实现他的目标，并为他提出的导师研究提供指导。他的研究的长期目标是：（1）确定与土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）相关的家庭，社区和基础设施因素;（2）确定LULC及其决定因素与疟疾病媒存在和人类疟疾风险的相关程度，以最终控制和根除间日疟原虫。该项目检验了一个核心假设，即社区定居区的土地利用率更多样化，开垦的土地更少，环境管理比附近劳动营管理的地区更好;因此，劳动营管理的地区的疟疾病媒密度将高于家庭定居者。为了实现目标和检验假设，该研究提出了联合收割机人口环境和病媒生态学研究，在秘鲁北方亚马逊沿着马赞河和纳波河。要合并的数据包括来自社区和劳动营的家庭和关键信息提供者的调查信息、相关基础设施和交通网络的位置数据、遥感图像的时间序列以及用于收集疟疾病媒幼虫的水体纵向样本。将指定使用传统和贝叶斯多水平框架的空间明确模型来检验假设。这项研究的结果将对整个拉丁美洲的疟疾预防和控制计划产生广泛的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application is being submitted in response to Notice NOT-HD-01-004, "Expansion of the NICHD Mentored Research Scientist Development Award (K01): Population Research." The objectives of this MRSDA are to expand Dr. William Pan's training and knowledge in the field of population, environment and health dynamics toward the goal of becoming an expert and independent investigator in this growing field. Dr. Pan will build upon his experience and expertise in household and use, biostatistics, multilevel modeling and spatial analysis by obtaining training in remote sensing (RS), ecology (vector ecology and biogeography), and malaria epidemiology. This new set of skills and knowledge will be obtained through a well-defined career development plan consisting of coursework, directed readings, and mentored research. Coursework and readings will be conducted in all areas, with a particular focus on RS and ecology. An expert group of mentors and collaborators have committed themselves to helping Dr. Pan achieve his goal and provide guidance for his proposed Mentored Research. The long-term objectives for his study are: (1) Identify household, community, and infrastructure factors associated with land use and land cover (LULC); and (2) Determine the extent to which LULC, and determinants thereof, are associated with malaria vector presence and human malaria risk towards the eventual control and eradication of P. vivax. The project tests the central hypothesis that community settlement areas have more diverse LULC, less land cleared, and better environmental management than areas managed by nearby labor camps; and therefore, malaria vector density will be greater in areas managed by labor camps than by household settlers. To achieve the objectives and test hypotheses, the study proposes to combine a population-environment and vector ecology study in the northern Peruvian Amazon along the Mazan and Napo Rivers. Data to be combined include survey information from households and key informants in communities and labor camps, locational data of relevant infrastructure and transportation networks, a time series of RS images, and a longitudinal sample of bodies of water to collect malaria vector larvae. Spatially-explicit models using traditional and Bayesian multilevel frameworks will be specified to test hypotheses. The findings from this study will have a wide impact on malaria prevention and control programs throughout Latin America.