Using Small-Area Estimates of Firearm Ownership to Investigate Violence Disparities and Firearm Policy Effects

项目摘要/摘要 枪支暴力造成的社会、经济和人员代价，包括每年近4万人死亡， 分布不均，某些人口亚群不成比例地受到枪支杀人的影响 和自杀。尽管枪支暴力的规模和范围很大，但现有数据衡量方面存在严重差距 随着时间的推移，不同人口阶层的枪支拥有量会削弱我们评估这些健康驱动因素的能力 评价枪支安全政策和干预措施是不可能的。因此，先前的研究检查变化 在与性别或种族有关的暴力暴露中，或在评估枪支安全政策的效力方面， 通常忽视不同人口阶层枪支拥有率的巨大差异，或者依赖于薄弱的 具有高度聚合的国家一级枪支拥有措施的横断面分析。这些程序 使对不同枪支暴力风险和政策因果影响的许多分析变得模棱两可。 该项目属于资助方案A，将使用小区域估计技术来 生成按性别、种族、婚姻定义的阶层内的家庭枪支拥有量的信息估计 1980年至2020年期间的地位、都市性和州政府。这些构建的措施将用于 调查死亡率差异与持枪率差异之间的关联程度 所有权，利用我们数据的纵向性质来更好地描述 枪支拥有权和枪支死亡率结果。调查结果将为各国枪支拥有权的变化提供信息 人口、社区和时间；以及这种差异如何与不同的枪杀和自杀有关 亚组间的风险。更好地理解这些关系对于发展和 实施有效的枪支安全干预措施(目标一)。最后，我们将使用我们的新措施 枪支拥有权，对政策效果进行创新和更敏感、更准确的评估 旨在提高枪支安全。通过允许政策影响取决于枪支拥有量 在大量人口阶层中，我们的方法改进了对以下方面的政策影响的因果识别 那些针对枪支拥有者安全行为的法律，它更好地涵盖了州际和亚州 死亡率结果的可变性(目标二)。 因此，这项研究通过提供新颖和严谨的 关于枪支拥有量的人口和地理趋势的证据，关于潜在异质性的证据 枪支拥有者的变化和枪支死亡人数的变化之间的关系，以及对有效性的影响 枪支安全政策。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The social, economic and human costs of firearm violence, including nearly 40,000 deaths annually, are unevenly distributed, with certain population subgroups disproportionately impacted by firearms homicides and suicides. Despite the scale and scope of firearm violence, serious gaps in available data measuring firearm ownership across population strata over time undermine our ability to evaluate drivers of these health disparities or to evaluate firearm safety policies and interventions. As such, prior research examining changes in violence exposure associated with gender or race, or evaluating the efficacy of gun safety policies, has typically ignored large differences in firearm ownership rates across population strata, or has relied on weak cross-sectional analyses with highly aggregated, state-level measures of firearm ownership. These procedures render many analyses of differential firearms violence risk and of the causal effects of policies ambiguous. This project, which falls under Funding Option A, will use small-area estimation techniques to generate informative estimates of household firearm ownership within strata defined by gender, race, marital status, urbanicity, and state, over the period 1980-2020. These constructed measures will be used to investigate the extent to which mortality disparities are associated with differences in rates of firearm ownership, leveraging the longitudinal nature of our data to better describe dynamics over time between firearm ownership and firearm mortality outcomes. Findings will inform how firearm ownership varies across populations, communities, and time; and how this variation relates to differential firearm homicide and suicide risk among subgroups. Better understanding these relationships is critical to the development and implementation of effective gun safety interventions (Objective One). Finally, we will use our new measures of firearm ownership to conduct innovative and more sensitive and precise evaluations of the effects of policies designed to improve firearm safety. By allowing policy impacts to depend on the levels of firearm ownership across a large number of population strata, our approach improves causal identification of policy effects for those laws that target the safety behavior of gun owners, and it better captures both inter-state and sub-state variability in mortality outcomes (Objective Two). This study thus addresses both objectives of RFA-CE-20-006 by providing novel and rigorous evidence on demographic and geographic trends in firearm ownership, on potentially heterogeneous relationships between changes in firearm ownership and changes in firearm deaths, and on the effectiveness of gun safety policies.