Assessing the Impact of Colorectal Cancer Screening

评估结直肠癌筛查的影响

• 批准号: 7912381
• 负责人: CAROLYN M RUTTER
• 金额: $ 22.32万
• 依托单位: KAISER FOUNDATION HEALTH PLAN OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-01 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7912381
• 关键词: Achievement; Address; Advisory Committees; Age; Behavior; Cessation of life; Collaborations; Colorectal Cancer; Future; Goals; Guidelines; Healthy People 2010; Incidence; Individual; Malignant Neoplasms; Modality; Modeling; Natural History; Obesity; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Polypectomy; Population; Primary Prevention; Process; Public Policy; Publications; Randomized; Recommendation; Relative (related person); Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Risk Factors; Risk Reduction; Screening procedure; Secondary Prevention; Simulate; Smoking; Surveillance Modeling; Time; Validation; Work; colorectal cancer screening; insight; member; mortality; new technology; population based; sex; trend; web site

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Microsimulation models can be used to estimate the effect of screening and changes in population risk on colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes, offering insights beyond those gained from either observational or randomized studies. Over the past two years, we have built a new microsimulation model for the natural history of CRC, and we are in the process of refining our screening model. We propose to use our model to estimate the impact of CRC screening on observed population trends in CRC incidence and mortality, expanding our focus to include the impact of risk factors on both observed and projected CRC outcomes. Our proposed work centers around three specific aims: Specific Aim 1: Estimating the effect of screening and polypectomy on trends in CRC incidence and mortality within the US population using our population-based microsimulation model. In particular, we will examine the impact of screening as practiced on CRC outcomes, and the potential impact of different guideline recommended screening strategies on CRC outcomes. Specific Aim 2: Extending our natural history model to incorporate the effects of individual risk factors (e.g., smoking, obesity) on CRC outcomes, and extending our screening model to explore the potential impact of new technologies on future trends in CRC outcomes. Explicit incorporation of risk factors is needed to estimate the effect of future changes in risk factors on outcomes, and to assess our Nation's ability to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. We will begin by estimating the effect of changes in a hypothetical risk factor on CRC outcomes, providing critical information about the relationship between risk factors and cancer outcomes. Ultimately, we will estimate the impact of changes in risk on CRC outcomes by building secular trends in risk factor behavior into our models. Specific Aim 3: Collaborating with both CISNET members and other investigators to address policy-relevant questions. Our proposed work is best carried out in collaboration with colleagues in the Cancer Incidence and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). The positive synergy of this group has enabled our team to rapidly develop and implement our microsimulation model for CRC.

描述（由申请人提供）： 微观仿真模型可用于估计筛查和人口风险变化对结直肠癌（CRC）结果的影响，从而提供了超出观察性或随机研究获得的见解。在过去的两年中，我们为CRC的自然历史建立了一个新的微仿真模型，并且正在完善筛选模型。我们建议使用我们的模型来估计CRC筛查对观察到的CRC发病率和死亡率中观察到的人口趋势的影响，从而扩大了我们的重点，以包括风险因素对观察到的CRC结果的影响。 我们提议的工作中心围绕三个具体目标： 具体目的1：使用基于人群的微仿真模型估算筛查和息肉切除术对美国人群中CRC发病率和死亡率趋势的影响。特别是，我们将研究实践对CRC结果的筛查的影响，以及不同指南建议筛选策略对CRC结果的潜在影响。 具体目的2：扩展我们的自然历史模型，以纳入单个危险因素（例如吸烟，肥胖）对CRC结果的影响，并扩展我们的筛查模型以探索新技术对CRC结果中未来趋势的潜在影响。需要明确纳入风险因素，以估算未来风险因素对结果的影响的影响，并评估我们国家降低CRC发病率和死亡率的能力。我们将首先估计假设风险因素对CRC结果的变化的影响，从而提供有关风险因素与癌症结果之间关系的关键信息。最终，我们将通过在我们的模型中建立世俗趋势来估算风险变化对CRC结果的影响。 特定目标3：与CISNET成员和其他调查人员合作，以解决与政策相关的问题。我们提出的工作最好与癌症发生率和监视建模网络（CISNET）的同事合作进行。该小组的积极协同作用使我们的团队能够快速开发和实施CRC的微仿真模型。

项目成果

Suspected extracolonic neoplasms detected on CT colonography: literature review and possible outcomes.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.acra.2013.01.017
• 发表时间: 2013-06
• 期刊: Academic radiology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Wernli KJ;Rutter CM;Dachman AH;Zafar HM
• 通讯作者: Zafar HM

Adverse events after screening and follow-up colonoscopy.

• DOI: 10.1007/s10552-011-9878-5
• 发表时间: 2012-02
• 期刊: CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Rutter, Carolyn M.;Johnson, Eric;Miglioretti, Diana L.;Mandelson, Margaret T.;Inadomi, John;Buist, Diana S. M.
• 通讯作者: Buist, Diana S. M.

Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.

• DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap07466
• 发表时间: 2009-12-01
• 期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Rutter CM;Miglioretti DL;Savarino JE
• 通讯作者: Savarino JE

Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review.

• DOI: 10.1177/0272989x10369005
• 发表时间: 2011-01
• 期刊: Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
• 作者: Rutter CM;Zaslavsky AM;Feuer EJ
• 通讯作者: Feuer EJ

Computer disease simulation models: integrating evidence for health policy.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.acra.2011.02.004
• 发表时间: 2011-09
• 期刊: ACADEMIC RADIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Rutter, Carolyn M.;Knudsen, Amy B.;Pandharipande, Pari V.
• 通讯作者: Pandharipande, Pari V.