Assessing the Impact of Colorectal Cancer Screening

评估结直肠癌筛查的影响

• 批准号: 7912381
• 负责人: CAROLYN M RUTTER
• 金额: $ 22.32万
• 依托单位: KAISER FOUNDATION HEALTH PLAN OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-01 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7912381
• 关键词: Achievement; Address; Advisory Committees; Age; Behavior; Cessation of life; Collaborations; Colorectal Cancer; Future; Goals; Guidelines; Healthy People 2010; Incidence; Individual; Malignant Neoplasms; Modality; Modeling; Natural History; Obesity; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Polypectomy; Population; Primary Prevention; Process; Public Policy; Publications; Randomized; Recommendation; Relative (related person); Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Risk Factors; Risk Reduction; Screening procedure; Secondary Prevention; Simulate; Smoking; Surveillance Modeling; Time; Validation; Work; colorectal cancer screening; insight; member; mortality; new technology; population based; sex; trend; web site

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Microsimulation models can be used to estimate the effect of screening and changes in population risk on colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes, offering insights beyond those gained from either observational or randomized studies. Over the past two years, we have built a new microsimulation model for the natural history of CRC, and we are in the process of refining our screening model. We propose to use our model to estimate the impact of CRC screening on observed population trends in CRC incidence and mortality, expanding our focus to include the impact of risk factors on both observed and projected CRC outcomes. Our proposed work centers around three specific aims: Specific Aim 1: Estimating the effect of screening and polypectomy on trends in CRC incidence and mortality within the US population using our population-based microsimulation model. In particular, we will examine the impact of screening as practiced on CRC outcomes, and the potential impact of different guideline recommended screening strategies on CRC outcomes. Specific Aim 2: Extending our natural history model to incorporate the effects of individual risk factors (e.g., smoking, obesity) on CRC outcomes, and extending our screening model to explore the potential impact of new technologies on future trends in CRC outcomes. Explicit incorporation of risk factors is needed to estimate the effect of future changes in risk factors on outcomes, and to assess our Nation's ability to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. We will begin by estimating the effect of changes in a hypothetical risk factor on CRC outcomes, providing critical information about the relationship between risk factors and cancer outcomes. Ultimately, we will estimate the impact of changes in risk on CRC outcomes by building secular trends in risk factor behavior into our models. Specific Aim 3: Collaborating with both CISNET members and other investigators to address policy-relevant questions. Our proposed work is best carried out in collaboration with colleagues in the Cancer Incidence and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). The positive synergy of this group has enabled our team to rapidly develop and implement our microsimulation model for CRC.

描述（由申请人提供）： 微观模拟模型可用于估计筛查和人群风险变化对结直肠癌（CRC）结局的影响，提供超出观察性或随机研究的见解。在过去的两年里，我们已经建立了一个新的CRC自然史的微观模拟模型，我们正在完善我们的筛选模型。我们建议使用我们的模型来估计CRC筛查对观察到的CRC发病率和死亡率的人群趋势的影响，将我们的关注点扩展到包括风险因素对观察到的和预测的CRC结果的影响。 我们提出的工作围绕三个具体目标： 具体目标1：使用我们基于人群的微观模拟模型评估筛查和息肉切除术对美国人群CRC发病率和死亡率趋势的影响。特别是，我们将研究筛查对CRC结局的影响，以及不同指南推荐的筛查策略对CRC结局的潜在影响。 具体目标2：扩展我们的自然历史模型，以纳入个体风险因素的影响（例如，吸烟，肥胖）对CRC结果的影响，并扩展我们的筛查模型，以探索新技术对CRC结果未来趋势的潜在影响。明确纳入危险因素是必要的，以估计未来变化的影响，在危险因素的结果，并评估我们国家的能力，以减少CRC的发病率和死亡率。我们将开始通过估计一个假设的风险因素的变化对CRC结果的影响，提供关于风险因素和癌症结果之间关系的关键信息。最终，我们将通过在我们的模型中建立风险因素行为的长期趋势来估计风险变化对CRC结局的影响。 具体目标3：与CISNET成员和其他调查人员合作，解决政策相关问题。我们建议的工作最好与癌症发病率和监测建模网络（CISNET）的同事合作进行。这个小组的积极协同作用使我们的团队能够快速开发和实施我们的CRC微观模拟模型。

项目成果

Suspected extracolonic neoplasms detected on CT colonography: literature review and possible outcomes.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.acra.2013.01.017
• 发表时间: 2013-06
• 期刊: Academic radiology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Wernli KJ;Rutter CM;Dachman AH;Zafar HM
• 通讯作者: Zafar HM

Adverse events after screening and follow-up colonoscopy.

• DOI: 10.1007/s10552-011-9878-5
• 发表时间: 2012-02
• 期刊: CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Rutter, Carolyn M.;Johnson, Eric;Miglioretti, Diana L.;Mandelson, Margaret T.;Inadomi, John;Buist, Diana S. M.
• 通讯作者: Buist, Diana S. M.

Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review.

• DOI: 10.1177/0272989x10369005
• 发表时间: 2011-01
• 期刊: Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
• 作者: Rutter CM;Zaslavsky AM;Feuer EJ
• 通讯作者: Feuer EJ

Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.

• DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap07466
• 发表时间: 2009-12-01
• 期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Rutter CM;Miglioretti DL;Savarino JE
• 通讯作者: Savarino JE

Computer disease simulation models: integrating evidence for health policy.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.acra.2011.02.004
• 发表时间: 2011-09
• 期刊: ACADEMIC RADIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Rutter, Carolyn M.;Knudsen, Amy B.;Pandharipande, Pari V.
• 通讯作者: Pandharipande, Pari V.