Extreme Heat Events- Evolving risk patterns in urban and rural communities

描述(申请人提供)：气候变化预计会导致更频繁、更强烈和更长时间的热浪。确定易受高温相关健康影响的人群对于气候变化适应规划和实施至关重要。我们假设，城市和农村社区对与高温相关的健康风险的脆弱性存在显著差异。为了验证这一假设，我们将1)开发一个空间上明确的模型，定义阿拉巴马州城市(伯明翰)和农村(黑带)社区过去20年的极端高温事件期间的弱势人口，2)使用区域气候模型预测和暴露-反应模型结果的输出，以确定未来20年伯明翰和黑带社区与极端高温事件相关的健康影响的可能性，以及3)与当地公共卫生官员和社区组织合作，特别是与服务不足的城乡社区合作，优先处理与高温相关的健康问题，并制定规划战略，以最有效地接触到已确定的弱势人口。拟议的调查将通过确定城市和农村社区的具体公共卫生需求和优先事项，为气候变化适应研究做出贡献。应用陆地数据同化系统和每日卫星观测的空间上明确的脆弱性地图将为社区确定优先次序和规划，以减少与高温有关的死亡率和发病率的风险。该项目将建立合作，将不同的研究学科与地方政府和社区组织联系起来。建立这些协作关系并开发基于脆弱性分析的地方一级优先次序工具，将有助于制定一项深入的RO1研究计划，旨在在南方腹地特别脆弱的社区实施和测试适应战略的有效性。 公共卫生相关性：越来越多的证据表明，适应气候变化的有效战略将需要社区一级的公共卫生干预。拟议的探索性研究将确定在服务不足的城市和农村社区之间，对高温相关健康影响的脆弱性是否存在显着差异。积极的发现将表明，划定独特的城市和农村风险因素将导致加强对极端高温事件的准备。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Climate change is expected to result in more frequent, more intense, and longer heat waves. Identification of vulnerable populations to heat-related health impacts is of critical importance for climate change adaptation planning and implementation. We hypothesize that significant differences in vulnerability to heat-related health risks exist between urban and rural communities. To test this hypothesis we will 1) Develop a spatially explicit model defining vulnerable populations during extreme heat events in an urban (Birmingham) versus rural (Black Belt) community in Alabama over the past 20 years, 2) Use regional climate model forecasting and outputs from exposure-response model results to determine the likelihood of extreme heat event related health impacts in Birmingham and Black Belt communities over the next 20 years, and 3) In collaboration with local public health officials and community organizations working with particularly underserved urban and rural communities, prioritize heat-related health issues and develop a planning strategy to most effectively reach identified vulnerable populations. The proposed investigation will contribute to climate change adaptation research by identifying the specific public health needs and priorities of an urban versus rural community. Spatially explicit vulnerability maps that apply land data assimilation systems and daily satellite observations will inform community prioritization and planning to decrease risk of heat related mortality and morbidity. The project will establish collaborations that bridge diverse research disciplines and local level government and community organizations. Building these collaborations and developing tools for local level prioritization based on vulnerability analysis will allow for development of an in-depth RO1 research plan designed to implement and test the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in particularly vulnerable communities in the Deep South. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Increasing evidence suggests effective strategies for adaptation to climate change will require community level public health interventions. The proposed exploratory studies will determine whether significant differences in vulnerability to heat-related health impacts exist between underserved urban and rural communities. Positive findings would suggest delineation of unique urban and rural risk factors will lead to increased preparedness for extreme heat events.