Extreme Heat Events- Evolving risk patterns in urban and rural communities

描述（由申请人提供）：预计气候变化将导致更频繁、更强烈和更长时间的热浪。确定易受热相关健康影响的人群对于气候变化适应规划和实施至关重要。我们假设城市和农村社区对热相关健康风险的脆弱性存在显著差异。为了验证这一假设，我们将1)开发一个空间明确的模型，定义过去20年来阿拉巴马州城市（伯明翰）和农村（黑带）社区极端高温事件期间的弱势群体，2)使用区域气候模型预测和暴露响应模型结果的输出来确定未来20年伯明翰和黑带社区极端高温事件相关健康影响的可能性。3)与当地公共卫生官员和社区组织合作，优先考虑与热有关的健康问题，并制定规划战略，以最有效地覆盖已确定的弱势群体。拟议的调查将通过确定城市与农村社区的具体公共卫生需求和优先事项，促进气候变化适应研究。应用土地数据同化系统和每日卫星观测的空间明确脆弱性地图将为社区确定优先次序和规划提供信息，以降低与热有关的死亡率和发病率的风险。该项目将建立各种研究学科与地方一级政府和社区组织之间的合作关系。建立这些合作并开发基于脆弱性分析的地方一级优先次序的工具，将有助于制定深入的RO1研究计划，旨在实施和测试适应战略在深南地区特别脆弱社区的有效性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Climate change is expected to result in more frequent, more intense, and longer heat waves. Identification of vulnerable populations to heat-related health impacts is of critical importance for climate change adaptation planning and implementation. We hypothesize that significant differences in vulnerability to heat-related health risks exist between urban and rural communities. To test this hypothesis we will 1) Develop a spatially explicit model defining vulnerable populations during extreme heat events in an urban (Birmingham) versus rural (Black Belt) community in Alabama over the past 20 years, 2) Use regional climate model forecasting and outputs from exposure-response model results to determine the likelihood of extreme heat event related health impacts in Birmingham and Black Belt communities over the next 20 years, and 3) In collaboration with local public health officials and community organizations working with particularly underserved urban and rural communities, prioritize heat-related health issues and develop a planning strategy to most effectively reach identified vulnerable populations. The proposed investigation will contribute to climate change adaptation research by identifying the specific public health needs and priorities of an urban versus rural community. Spatially explicit vulnerability maps that apply land data assimilation systems and daily satellite observations will inform community prioritization and planning to decrease risk of heat related mortality and morbidity. The project will establish collaborations that bridge diverse research disciplines and local level government and community organizations. Building these collaborations and developing tools for local level prioritization based on vulnerability analysis will allow for development of an in-depth RO1 research plan designed to implement and test the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in particularly vulnerable communities in the Deep South. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Increasing evidence suggests effective strategies for adaptation to climate change will require community level public health interventions. The proposed exploratory studies will determine whether significant differences in vulnerability to heat-related health impacts exist between underserved urban and rural communities. Positive findings would suggest delineation of unique urban and rural risk factors will lead to increased preparedness for extreme heat events.