Extreme Heat Events- Evolving risk patterns in urban and rural communities

描述（由申请人提供）：气候变化预计将导致更频繁，更强烈，更长的热浪。确定易受高温健康影响的弱势群体对于气候变化适应规划和实施至关重要。我们假设，城市和农村社区之间存在显着差异，热相关的健康风险的脆弱性。为了验证这一假设，我们将1）开发一个空间显式模型，定义城市极端高温事件期间的脆弱人群，（伯明翰）与农村（黑带）社区在亚拉巴马在过去的20年里，2）使用区域气候模型预测和暴露的输出-响应模型结果，以确定伯明翰和黑带社区未来一段时间内极端高温事件相关健康影响的可能性3）与当地公共卫生官员和社区组织合作，特别是与服务不足的城市和农村社区合作，优先考虑与热有关的健康问题，并制定规划战略，以最有效地覆盖已确定的弱势群体。拟议的调查将通过确定城市与农村社区的具体公共卫生需求和优先事项，促进气候变化适应研究。应用土地数据同化系统和每日卫星观测的空间清晰的脆弱性地图将为社区确定优先事项和规划提供信息，以减少与热有关的死亡率和发病率风险。该项目将建立合作关系，将不同的研究学科与地方政府和社区组织联系起来。建立这些合作和开发工具，在脆弱性分析的基础上确定地方一级的优先事项，将有助于制定一项深入的RO 1研究计划，旨在执行和测试适应战略在南方腹地特别脆弱的社区的有效性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Climate change is expected to result in more frequent, more intense, and longer heat waves. Identification of vulnerable populations to heat-related health impacts is of critical importance for climate change adaptation planning and implementation. We hypothesize that significant differences in vulnerability to heat-related health risks exist between urban and rural communities. To test this hypothesis we will 1) Develop a spatially explicit model defining vulnerable populations during extreme heat events in an urban (Birmingham) versus rural (Black Belt) community in Alabama over the past 20 years, 2) Use regional climate model forecasting and outputs from exposure-response model results to determine the likelihood of extreme heat event related health impacts in Birmingham and Black Belt communities over the next 20 years, and 3) In collaboration with local public health officials and community organizations working with particularly underserved urban and rural communities, prioritize heat-related health issues and develop a planning strategy to most effectively reach identified vulnerable populations. The proposed investigation will contribute to climate change adaptation research by identifying the specific public health needs and priorities of an urban versus rural community. Spatially explicit vulnerability maps that apply land data assimilation systems and daily satellite observations will inform community prioritization and planning to decrease risk of heat related mortality and morbidity. The project will establish collaborations that bridge diverse research disciplines and local level government and community organizations. Building these collaborations and developing tools for local level prioritization based on vulnerability analysis will allow for development of an in-depth RO1 research plan designed to implement and test the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in particularly vulnerable communities in the Deep South.