Licensing Laws, Mobility, and Traffic Safety among Older Adults

 描述(由申请人提供)：二战后的婴儿潮一代年龄在65岁及以上(老年人)，预计与前几代人相比，他们将在以后的生活中驾驶更多里程。这种人口结构的转变引发了全国性的交通安全担忧，因为老年司机的撞车率较高，更有可能在撞车中受伤，而且不太可能从受伤中恢复过来，恢复到受伤前的日常生活活动水平。各州颁布了与老年司机有关的各种许可法。到目前为止，很少有研究调查这些法律不仅在保护老年司机方面的有效性，而且 还有那些与他们共享道路的人。目前尚不清楚这些法律如何影响老年人的驾驶行为，它们是否减少了每行驶小时或行程的司机伤害，它们在多大程度上增加了替代交通工具的使用，以及老年人作为乘客或行人的伤害是否相应增加。因此，我们提出了一个为期四年的项目，目的是在多个州确定老年人许可法对驾驶决策、替代交通选择和费率的影响 在老年司机、乘客、行人和骑自行车的人中发生的伤亡事故。我们假设，许可法的有效性受到法律某些条款的影响，许可法减少了驾驶行程和伤害，但增加了非驾驶行程和伤害。该项目的目的是确定许可法的哪些条款减少了驾驶时数和行程、执照率和每行驶小时的撞车率(目标1)，确定了哪些法律条款增加了替代交通和非驾驶伤害和死亡(目标2)，并确定了哪些法律条款影响老年人的交通总行程、小时数和撞车(目标3)。将审查以下立法规定：续签方式(面对面或邮寄/在线)、续签周期的长度、视力测试的要求、道路测试的要求、知识测试的要求以及关于医疗状况的强制性医生报告。这些目标将通过结合和分析联邦、州和私人机构维护的各种数据系统中的旅行、驾照、经济、立法、人口和坠机数据来实现。将使用多水平广义线性和负二项模型来估计州一级法律对个人水平旅行的影响 行为和州级撞车率。在较强的前期数据指导下，本研究也具有创新性。例如，每小时驾驶撞车率的创新测量与人均撞车率相结合，将有助于确定立法条款在降低人均撞车率方面的效果是由于驾驶时间的减少，还是由于更安全的驾驶，还是由于两者的某种组合。这项研究意义重大，因为这些发现可以为政策制定者更新或修改现有立法的努力提供信息，以有效减少老年人的伤害事故，同时保护他们的个人自由和机动性。

 DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Post-World War II baby boomers are reaching age 65 and over (older adults), and are projected to drive more miles later in life compared to previous generations. This demographic shift raises national-level traffic safety concerns, because older adult drivers have an elevated crash rate, are more likely to be injured in a crash, and are less likely to recover from injuries and resume the level of daily life activity prior to bing injured. States have enacted various licensing laws pertaining to older drivers. To date, little research has investigated the effectiveness of these laws in protecting not only older drivers, but also those who share the roadways with them. It remains unclear how these laws affect driving behaviors among older adults, whether they reduce driver injuries per driving hours or trips, the extent to which they increase the use of alternative transportation, and whether there are corresponding increases in injuries to older adults as passengers or pedestrians. Therefore, we propose a four-year project with objectives to determine, across multiple states, the impact of licensing laws for older adults on driving decisions, alternative transportation choices, and rates of injurious and fatal crashes among older adult drivers, passengers, pedestrians, and bicyclists. We hypothesize that the effectiveness of licensing laws is impacted by certain provisions of the law, and that the licensing laws reduce driving trips and injuries, but increase non-driving trips and injuries. The aims of this project are to determine which provisions of licensing laws reduce driving hours and trips, licensure rates, and crash rate per driving hours (Aim 1), to identify which provisions of laws increase alternative transportation and non-driving injury and fatality (Aim 2), and to identify which provisions of laws affect total transportation trips, hours, and crashes among older adults (Aim 3). The following legislative provisions will be examined: means of renewal (in-person or mail/online), length of the renewal cycle, requirements for vision tests, requirements for road tests, requirements for knowledge tests, and mandatory physician reporting for medical conditions. The aims will be accomplished by combining and analyzing travel, license, economic, legislative, population, and crash data from a variety of data systems maintained by federal, state, and private agencies. Multilevel generalized linear and negative binomial models will be used to estimate the effects of state-level laws on individual-level travel behaviors and state-level crash rates. Guided by strong preliminary data, this study is also innovative. For example, the innovative measurement of crash rate per hour of driving in combination with crash rate per capita will help determine whether the effects of the legislative provisions in reducing crash rate per capita are due to a reduction in driving hours, due to safer driving, or due to some combination of both. This study is significant, because the findings can inform policymakers' efforts to update or modify existing legislation to effectively reduce injurios crashes among older adults while preserving their personal freedom and mobility.