Assessment of interventions for controlling pandemic influenza and determining data needs to inform these assessments

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The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at risk of being infected. We will compare these control measures by taking due account of the ability and resources available for these interventions, and with regard to the need to maintain essential services. The comparisons will be made using mathematical models that describe the transmission of the infection. All available data and advice from experts will be used to ensure that realistic models are used for the comparisons. We will also use the models to determine the best use of the limited antiviral drugs available, until a vaccine becomes available. We will consider how the control strategy should be changed if a strain develops that is resistant to the antiviral drugs. In addition, we will determine what data need to be collected during the early stages of a pandemic to help us to determine the best use of the antiviral drugs, the best use of a new vaccine and to check on the development of resistance to the antiviral drugs.