RAPID: Optimal allocation of both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions toward controlling Ebola virus transmission in West Africa

这项研究将评估在2014年西非埃博拉疫情中各种药物和公共卫生战略的成功，以最有效地控制和减少疾病的传播。研究人员将开发一个数学模型，考虑一个人的变异性--S的传染性，在医院或社区环境中发生的传播变化，以及由于地理和空间差异而导致的传播差异。这一拟议工具将利用西非疫情的最新数据，准确反映当地情况。因此，这项研究的结果将立即提供相关和实时的信息。调查人员正在利用利比里亚卫生和社会福利部收集的接触者追踪数据。本次暴发的1360例病例和7400名追踪接触者的数据集将被用来对该模型进行参数化。这些数据将提供有关个人行为变化的信息，以应对疾病传播、社区间流动和自我隔离措施。包括实验性疫苗在内的药学数据，以及基于社区的抗病毒疗法，如ZMapp和法维拉韦，将在该模型中进行评估。该模型将评估以下非药剂性公共卫生干预措施：公共卫生人员和救护车服务的数量、治疗中心能力的大小以及家庭防护用品包的分配和效果。这一工具将向公共卫生专业人员提供重要信息，协助他们就资源分配作出关键决定，以最大限度地提高影响和公共卫生成果。

This research will evaluate the success of various pharmaceutical and public health strategies in the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in order to most effectively control and reduce the spread of disease. The investigators will develop a mathematical model that considers variability in a person?s infectiousness, the variation in transmission that occurs in a hospital or community setting, as well as the differences in transmission due to geography and spatial variation. This proposed tool will utilize current data from the outbreak in West Africa to accurately reflect the on-the-ground situation. Consequently, results from this research will provide immediately relevant and real-time information. The investigators are utilizing contact tracing data collected by the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. This dataset of 1360 cases and 7400 traced contacts from the current outbreak will be used to parameterize the model. The data will provide information on individual behavior changes in response to disease spread, between-community movement and self-quarantining measures. Pharmaceutical data including experimental vaccines, as well as community based antiviral therapies such as ZMapp and favipiravir will be evaluated in the model. The following non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will be evaluated in the model: quantity of public health personnel and ambulance services, magnitude of treatment center capacity, and the allocation and efficacy of household protective kits. This tool will offer important information to public health professionals to assist them in making critical decisions on resource allocation in order to maximize impact and public health outcomes.