Mathematical approaches for controlling emerging and re-emerging diseases

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The aim of this proposal is to design a mathematical modelling framework for assessing control strategies against the spread of some classes of human diseases of public health importance, notably childhood diseases, vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue and malaria), sexually-transmitted diseases (e.g., HIV), respiratory diseases (e.g., seasonal and pandemic influenza, tuberculosis, SARS) and other vaccine-preventable diseases (e.g., diphtheria, pneumococcal disease, rotavirus, yellow fever, typhoid, cholera).   Although many of these diseases are controllable and/or treatable, they continue to be major global menace.  For instance, figures from the World Health Organization show that nearly 46 million people currently live with HIV globally, and the disease has so far claimed the lives of over 20 million people.    I intend to develop a mathematical modeling framework for studying the transmission and control dynamics of the above classes of diseases.  The models, which will be calibrated using available data, will then be used to evaluate various control strategies aimed at determining the most effective one(s) for each class of diseases.   The main strategies to be considered include the use of vaccine, drug treatment and quarantine and isolation.  The novelty of this basic research includes the design of realistic models for gaining insights into the transmission dynamics and control of classes of human diseases.  Control measures for halting disease spread in resource-poor nations, which accounts for the highest disease burden globally, would also be designed.  The work would have important applications in the design of suitable vaccines and drugs, as well as the design of new mathematical methods for analyzing the relatively large models I will be dealing with.