Forecasting species vulnerability to global change

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A central limitation to making predictions about ecological systems lies in resolving the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are usually studied and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve understanding of mechanisms that underpin predictions of when and where different environmental stressors will be important for the persistence of species and ecosystems. To this end, my proposal addresses two fundamental questions of the causes and consequences of global change at scales spanning individual population dynamics to predictions of ecosystem resilience. 1) In spite of four decades of experiments and theory, our understanding of why some amphibian populations decline and others do not is still in its infancy. Can we improve predictions of vulnerability prior to declines by better integrating this extensive data and theory? This project will link comparative life history and population dynamics theory with experiments and modeling to evaluate predictive patterns in amphibian species population dynamics. 2) Do combinations of historic and current stressors predispose even the best-protected ecosystems to non-linear shifts and biodiversity loss? This project will evaluate whether the widespread introduction of exotic trout predispose montane amphibians and the unique ecosystems they inhabit to catastrophic shifts under climate-induced desiccation. I will address these questions through a combination of meta-analyses of existing population data, matrix model simulations (incorporating stressors and different forms of intrinsic population regulation), field experiments testing mechanistic predictions, and landscape-scale GIS modeling and projections of future vulnerability for a suite of amphibians. This research program will also provide significant training for graduate and undergraduate students in field ecology and cutting-edge quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's intellectual capacity to meet international targets for preserving biodiversity.