Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to rapid environmental change

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Accelerating global change presents ecologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate in both mean and variance from those a century ago, leading to assemblages and ecosystem processes shifting in non-intuitive ways. Our ability to forecast species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I aim to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation and restoration actions. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different threat processes will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my current proposal aims to address two related goals for the next five years. 1) I will link species biophysical traits, behavior, and phylogeny for tetrapod ectotherms to improve predictions for population and species persistence at landscape scales. Thermal limits are useful proxies for fitness across environments, and are used to predict climate vulnerability, but evaporative water loss (EWL) may be equally or more restrictive. I will combine comparative analyses of existing trait datasets, with experiments and field surveys to predict the consequences of changing thermal and hydric regimes in ecosystems undergoing rapid environmental change. 2) More physiologically restrictive environments also overlap with other threat processes (exotic predators, overgrazing), that may exacerbate climate risk. I will couple biophysical predictions of local extinction risk with landscape scale changes in water availability, and evaluate whether specific activities (exotic predator removal, check dam construction) can moderate or reverse local extinction risk by restoring habitat mosaics that provide climate resilience. Historic datasets and restoration efforts led by collaborating agencies in two regions will serve as the template for new research this grant cycle. This research program will also provide training for graduate and undergraduate students, and PDFs in field ecology, conservation, and modern quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's capacity to meet domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, and provide direct support for conservation planning and management decisions in Canada's freshwater ecosystems and beyond.