Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to rapid environmental change

预测人口、物种和生态系统对快速环境变化的脆弱性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-06631
• 负责人: Palen, Wendy
• 金额: $ 4.01万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=744805
• 关键词: Forecasting; population; species; ecosystem; vulnerability

Accelerating global change presents ecologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate in both mean and variance from those a century ago, leading to assemblages and ecosystem processes shifting in non-intuitive ways. Our ability to forecast species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I aim to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation and restoration actions. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different threat processes will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my current proposal aims to address two related goals for the next five years. 1) I will link species biophysical traits, behavior, and phylogeny for tetrapod ectotherms to improve predictions for population and species persistence at landscape scales. Thermal limits are useful proxies for fitness across environments, and are used to predict climate vulnerability, but evaporative water loss (EWL) may be equally or more restrictive. I will combine comparative analyses of existing trait datasets, with experiments and field surveys to predict the consequences of changing thermal and hydric regimes in ecosystems undergoing rapid environmental change. 2) More physiologically restrictive environments also overlap with other threat processes (exotic predators, overgrazing), that may exacerbate climate risk. I will couple biophysical predictions of local extinction risk with landscape scale changes in water availability, and evaluate whether specific activities (exotic predator removal, check dam construction) can moderate or reverse local extinction risk by restoring habitat mosaics that provide climate resilience. Historic datasets and restoration efforts led by collaborating agencies in two regions will serve as the template for new research this grant cycle. This research program will also provide training for graduate and undergraduate students, and PDFs in field ecology, conservation, and modern quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's capacity to meet domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, and provide direct support for conservation planning and management decisions in Canada's freshwater ecosystems and beyond.

加速的全球变化给生态学家提出了一个根本性的挑战。处于保护工作重点的物种存在于由环境条件定义的生态系统中，这些环境条件在均值和方差方面都偏离了世纪前的环境条件，导致生物组合和生态系统过程以非直观的方式发生变化。我们预测物种对人为变化的反应的能力仍然受到小尺度之间的不连续性的限制，在小尺度上主要了解机械过程，与人口动态，物种状况和生态系统过程相关的广泛的空间和时间尺度。我的研究计划集中在这些理论和应用挑战的交叉点。我的目标是开发和推进一个综合框架，以改善人口，物种和生态系统对全球变化的脆弱性预测，以支持更有效的保护和恢复行动。我利用跨尺度和生物组织水平的调查，以提高预测何时何地不同的威胁过程将推动物种持久性，种群动态和生物多样性模式的转变。为此，我目前的建议旨在解决未来五年的两个相关目标。1)我将联系物种的生物物理特征，行为，和四足动物的繁殖，以提高在景观尺度上的人口和物种的持久性预测。热极限是跨环境适应性的有用代理，并用于预测气候脆弱性，但蒸发失水（EWL）可能同样或更具限制性。我将结合联合收割机现有的性状数据集的比较分析，与实验和实地调查，以预测在经历快速环境变化的生态系统中的热和水制度的变化的后果。2)生理限制性更强的环境还与其他威胁过程（外来捕食者、过度放牧）重叠，这可能加剧气候风险。我将结合生物物理学预测当地灭绝的风险与景观尺度的变化，水的可用性，并评估是否特定的活动（外来捕食者清除，检查大坝建设）可以通过恢复栖息地马赛克，提供气候适应能力，缓和或扭转当地灭绝的风险。由两个地区的合作机构领导的历史数据集和恢复工作将作为本资助周期新研究的模板。该研究计划还将为研究生和本科生提供培训，并提供野外生态学，保护和现代定量方法的PDF，并有助于加拿大履行国内和国际承诺的能力，以保护生物多样性。该研究计划将推进我们对物种和人口对全球变化的反应的机械和理论理解，并为加拿大淡水生态系统及其他地区的保护规划和管理决策提供直接支持。