Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to rapid environmental change

加速的全球变化向生态学家提出了一个根本性的挑战。处于保护工作重点的物种存在于由环境条件定义的生态系统中，这些环境条件与一个世纪前的环境条件的均值和方差都不同，导致群落和生态系统过程以非直观的方式发生变化。我们预测物种对人为变化的反应的能力仍然受到主要了解机械过程的小尺度与与种群动态、物种状况和生态系统过程相关的广泛的空间和时间尺度之间的不连续性的限制。我的研究项目专注于这些理论和应用挑战的交汇点。我的目标是开发和推进一个综合框架，以改进对全球变化的人口、物种和生态系统脆弱性的预测，以支持更有效的保护和恢复行动。我利用跨越生物组织规模和水平的调查，以提高对不同威胁过程何时何地推动物种持久性、种群动态和生物多样性模式变化的预测。为此，我目前的提议旨在解决未来五年的两个相关目标。1)我将把四足类外温虫的物种生物物理特征、行为和系统发育联系起来，以提高对景观尺度上种群和物种持久性的预测。热极限是反映不同环境适应性的有用指标，可用于预测气候脆弱性，但蒸发失水(EWL)可能具有同等或更高的限制性。我将结合对现有特征数据集的比较分析，以及实验和实地调查来预测在经历快速环境变化的生态系统中改变热力和氢气制度的后果。2)更具生理限制性的环境也与其他威胁过程(外来捕食者、过度放牧)重叠，这可能会加剧气候风险。我将把对局部灭绝风险的生物物理预测与水资源可获得性的景观规模变化结合起来，并评估特定活动(外来捕食者清除、检查大坝建设)是否可以通过恢复提供气候弹性的栖息地马赛克来缓解或扭转局部灭绝风险。由两个区域的合作机构领导的历史数据集和修复工作将作为本赠款周期新研究的模板。该研究计划还将为研究生和本科生以及PDF提供野外生态学、保护和现代量化方法方面的培训，并促进加拿大履行保护生物多样性的国内和国际承诺的能力。这项研究计划将促进我们对物种和种群对全球变化反应的机械和理论理解，并为加拿大淡水生态系统及其他地区的保护规划和管理决策提供直接支持。

Accelerating global change presents ecologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate in both mean and variance from those a century ago, leading to assemblages and ecosystem processes shifting in non-intuitive ways. Our ability to forecast species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I aim to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation and restoration actions. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different threat processes will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my current proposal aims to address two related goals for the next five years. 1) I will link species biophysical traits, behavior, and phylogeny for tetrapod ectotherms to improve predictions for population and species persistence at landscape scales. Thermal limits are useful proxies for fitness across environments, and are used to predict climate vulnerability, but evaporative water loss (EWL) may be equally or more restrictive. I will combine comparative analyses of existing trait datasets, with experiments and field surveys to predict the consequences of changing thermal and hydric regimes in ecosystems undergoing rapid environmental change. 2) More physiologically restrictive environments also overlap with other threat processes (exotic predators, overgrazing), that may exacerbate climate risk. I will couple biophysical predictions of local extinction risk with landscape scale changes in water availability, and evaluate whether specific activities (exotic predator removal, check dam construction) can moderate or reverse local extinction risk by restoring habitat mosaics that provide climate resilience. Historic datasets and restoration efforts led by collaborating agencies in two regions will serve as the template for new research this grant cycle. This research program will also provide training for graduate and undergraduate students, and PDFs in field ecology, conservation, and modern quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's capacity to meet domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, and provide direct support for conservation planning and management decisions in Canada's freshwater ecosystems and beyond.