Exploring ecological surprises by multiple stressors of aquatic food webs

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The main goal of my research program is to discover ecological drivers of aquatic food-web responses to global change. Multiple human-related stressors that define global change often exert complex non-additive effects on food webs, which cannot therefore be easily predicted based on the sum of known effects by single stressors. Consequently, extreme climate change together with other stressors often generate alarming "ecological surprises." I have developed a conceptual model of the ecological mechanisms affecting multi-trophic responses to multiple stressors. The model is based on three operating hypotheses: 1) stressors exert more pronounced synergistic impacts on top predators than on plants because animals are less tolerant of rapid environmental change, 2) tolerant plant species more than top predators are able to readily colonize stressed ecosystems and functionally compensate for extinct species, and thus, 3) differences in tolerances among top predators, herbivores, and plants result in their interactions (e.g., predation and herbivory) being profoundly altered in stressed ecosystems. My research group tests these hypotheses by conducting experiments in naturally fishless alpine lakes of the Canadian Rockies, which are being increasingly impacted by extreme climate events, introduced invasive species, and air pollution. Therefore, these highly sensitive species-poor ecosystems are excellent venues for investigating the effects of multiple stressors on trophic complexity. We examine the responses of whole food webs, single trophic groups and their interactions by exposing them sequentially to summer heating events and other stressors using submersible greenhouse mesocosms. We also examine the importance of dispersal and colonization by tolerant species as a means of buffering alpine food webs against the impacts of rapid environmental change. I refine and upgrade my proposed model through comparison of experimental and naturally occurring food webs in alpine lakes that are exposed to the same combination of stressors. Our findings will help better explain why we should expect the unexpected from future global change.