A tale of two systems: biological control of knapweed and population dynamics of tent caterpillars

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Canada, a land of abundant natural resources, has a proud history of research on the biotic threats to forestry and agriculture. Two areas have been particularly relevant - the impacts of forest insects and of rangeland exotic weeds. Basic population research on plants and insects is required to understand, predict and possibly ameliorate these threats. Studies of population cycles of western tent caterpillars began in the 1950's. Our goal is to build on this wealth of knowledge and to synthesize an understanding of the dynamics of this species. Recent analysis shows that warm springs can be detrimental to population growth of tent caterpillars and infection by a viral disease tends to be higher in populations in warm springs. We propose to experimentally test the hypothesis that warming promotes the development of a viral epizootic. For this we will create branch-level greenhouses to warm infected caterpillars. In addition we will develop synthetic models to explore how population dynamics may change with warming climatic conditions.