Towards the development of integrated modelling frameworks in aquatic biogeochemistry: A Bayesian synthesis of empirical knowledge and model predictions

发展水生生物地球化学综合建模框架：经验知识和模型预测的贝叶斯综合

• 批准号: 326909-2012
• 负责人: Arhonditsis, George
• 金额: $ 2.77万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=507831
• 关键词: Towards; development; integrated; modelling; frameworks

My research program focuses on the study of aquatic biogeochemical cycles and develops novel modelling techniques for assisting environmental management. My current research promotes a critical approach to modelling that integrates Bayesian inference techniques with mathematical modelling for rigorously assessing the uncertainty underlying model predictions. Previous support from NSERC has offered a platform to conduct fundamental research in the area of model-based environmental management. The Hamilton Harbour, a eutrophic embayment located at the western tip of Lake Ontario, is one of the main sites used to disseminate the benefits of my research program. My group has developed a network of models to capture the variability of key components of the lower food web and, most importantly, to offer an accurate representation of the cause-effect relationships underlying the eutrophication phenomenon. Building upon the findings of my recent modelling work in the Hamilton Harbour watershed and receiving waterbody, the proposed research program aims to shed light on two critical aspects of the ecosystem dynamics, i.e., phosphorus release driven by sediment diagenesis and nutritional/biochemical control of the primary producer-consumer interface. The proposed research will offer fundamental knowledge on two hot topics in the field of aquatic biogeochemistry. The eutrophic nature of the Hamilton Harbour makes the study of sediment diagenesis and biochemical control of the plant-animal interface particularly intriguing. The anticipated insights into the capacity of the two factors to modulate the response of the system will offer a unique case study in the international literature. The foundation of my modelling work on Bayesian inference techniques is perfectly suitable for integrating different submodels into one coherent framework, while rigorously assessing the uncertainty associated with model structures and parameters. The proposed research program aims to illustrate how empirical knowledge and rational modelling can be used to guide system restoration in highly disturbed settings.

我的研究计划专注于水生生物地球化学循环的研究，并开发新的建模技术来辅助环境管理。我目前的研究促进了一种关键的建模方法，该方法将贝叶斯推理技术与数学建模相结合，以严格评估模型预测背后的不确定性。NSERC以前的支持为开展基于模型的环境管理领域的基础研究提供了一个平台。汉密尔顿港位于安大略湖西端，是一个富营养化的海湾，是用来传播我的研究计划好处的主要地点之一。我的团队开发了一个模型网络，以捕捉较低食物链关键成分的可变性，最重要的是，提供富营养化现象背后的因果关系的准确表示。基于我最近在哈密尔顿港流域和接受水体的建模工作的结果，拟议的研究计划旨在阐明生态系统动力学的两个关键方面，即沉积物成岩作用驱动的磷释放和初级生产者-消费者界面的营养/生化控制。这项拟议的研究将为水生生物地球化学领域的两个热点问题提供基础知识。汉密尔顿港的富营养化性质使得对沉积物成岩作用和动植物界面生物化学控制的研究特别有趣。对这两个因素调节系统反应的能力的预期洞察将在国际文献中提供一个独特的案例研究。我在贝叶斯推理技术上的建模工作的基础非常适合于将不同的子模型集成到一个连贯的框架中，同时严格评估与模型结构和参数相关的不确定性。拟议的研究计划旨在说明如何使用经验知识和合理的建模来指导在高度干扰环境下的系统恢复。