Multi-scale modelling of boreal breeding bird distribution and abundance to evaluate potential climate and land-use change impacts

这片3.07亿公顷的加拿大北方森林通常被称为北美的鸟类“苗圃”，为鸟类的繁殖提供了一个异常丰富的资源环境，支持了高度的物种多样性和鸟类数量。然而，由于其辽阔和偏远，这一生态系统的研究相对不足，对北方繁殖鸟类的数量和分布模式具有很高的不确定性。根据最近的变暖趋势和全球气候模式对下个世纪的预测，北纬地区在温度和水分可用性以及野火活动方面可能会经历特别大的变化。同时，越来越多的工业活动将进一步改变北方生态系统。由于气候和土地利用模式的变化导致森林植被的变化，鸟类和其他生物也将受到影响，可能以意想不到的方式受到影响。北方森林的大范围和动态性质要求建立复杂的多尺度模型，将自然和人为干扰的影响纳入其中。我将改进传统的物种分布模型，基于观察到的物种和气候之间的关系，通过应用强大的新的分层建模技术，可以纳入多个影响尺度。我将把所得的统计模型与通过干扰和植被演替明确模拟景观变化的机制模型联系起来。利用现有的鸟类、气候和植被数据集，我将开发模型来预测气候和土地利用变化共同影响下加拿大北方鸟类群落的变化；评估气候、植被和景观格局对鸟类分布和数量的相对影响。我将研究单个物种及其共生模式，并将未来的脆弱性与历史上的人口趋势进行比较。模型结果将用于确定保护和研究的高优先区域。

Often referred to as North America's bird "nursery," the 307-million hectare Canadian boreal forest provides an exceptionally resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. Yet, due to its vast expanse and remoteness, this ecosystem is relatively understudied, with high uncertainty about the numbers and distribution patterns of boreal breeding birds. Based on recent warming trends and global climate model projections for the next century, northern latitudes are likely to experience particularly large changes in temperature and moisture availability, as well as wildfire activity. At the same time, increasing industrial activities will further modify boreal ecosystems. As changing climate and land-use patterns cause changes in forest vegetation, birds and other organisms will also be affected, likely in unanticipated ways. The large extent and dynamic nature of the boreal forest call for sophisticated multi-scale modelling that incorporates the influence of natural and human disturbances. I will improve upon traditional species distribution models, based on observed relationships between species and climate, by applying powerful new hierarchical modelling techniques that can incorporate multiple scales of influence. I will link the resulting statistical models with mechanistic models that explicitly simulate landscape change via disturbance and vegetation succession. Drawing from existing bird, climate, and vegetation datasets, I will develop models to project changes in Canadian boreal bird communities under the combined effects of climate and land-use change; and evaluate the relative influence of climate, vegetation, and landscape pattern on bird distribution and abundance. I will examine individual species as well as their patterns of co-occurrence, and I will compare future vulnerabilities with historical population trends. Model results will be used to identify high priority areas for conservation and research.