Multi-scale modelling of boreal breeding bird distribution and abundance to evaluate potential climate and land-use change impacts

北方繁殖鸟类分布和丰度的多尺度建模，以评估潜在的气候和土地利用变化影响

• 批准号: 405691-2011
• 负责人: Stralberg, Diana
• 金额: $ 3.64万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarships - Doctoral
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=515573
• 关键词: Multi; scale; modelling; boreal; breeding

Often referred to as North America's bird "nursery," the 307-million hectare Canadian boreal forest provides an exceptionally resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. Yet, due to its vast expanse and remoteness, this ecosystem is relatively understudied, with high uncertainty about the numbers and distribution patterns of boreal breeding birds. Based on recent warming trends and global climate model projections for the next century, northern latitudes are likely to experience particularly large changes in temperature and moisture availability, as well as wildfire activity. At the same time, increasing industrial activities will further modify boreal ecosystems. As changing climate and land-use patterns cause changes in forest vegetation, birds and other organisms will also be affected, likely in unanticipated ways. The large extent and dynamic nature of the boreal forest call for sophisticated multi-scale modelling that incorporates the influence of natural and human disturbances. I will improve upon traditional species distribution models, based on observed relationships between species and climate, by applying powerful new hierarchical modelling techniques that can incorporate multiple scales of influence. I will link the resulting statistical models with mechanistic models that explicitly simulate landscape change via disturbance and vegetation succession. Drawing from existing bird, climate, and vegetation datasets, I will develop models to project changes in Canadian boreal bird communities under the combined effects of climate and land-use change; and evaluate the relative influence of climate, vegetation, and landscape pattern on bird distribution and abundance. I will examine individual species as well as their patterns of co-occurrence, and I will compare future vulnerabilities with historical population trends. Model results will be used to identify high priority areas for conservation and research.

加拿大北部森林面积达3.07亿公顷，通常被称为北美的鸟类“苗圃”，为鸟类繁殖提供了一个资源异常丰富的环境，支持了高物种多样性和鸟类数量。然而，由于其广阔和偏远，这个生态系统是相对不足的研究，与北方繁殖鸟类的数量和分布模式的高度不确定性。根据最近的变暖趋势和全球气候模式对下一个世纪的预测，北方纬度地区的温度和湿度可能会发生特别大的变化，野火活动也会发生。与此同时，工业活动的增加将进一步改变北方的生态系统。由于气候和土地使用模式的变化导致森林植被的变化，鸟类和其他生物体也将受到影响，可能是以意想不到的方式。北方森林的大范围和动态性质要求进行复杂的多尺度建模，其中包括自然和人为干扰的影响。我将改进传统的物种分布模型，根据观察到的物种和气候之间的关系，通过应用强大的新的层次建模技术，可以纳入多个尺度的影响。我将把由此产生的统计模型与明确模拟景观变化通过干扰和植被演替的机械模型。借鉴现有的鸟类，气候和植被数据集，我将开发模型，以项目在加拿大北方鸟类群落的变化下的气候和土地利用变化的综合影响，并评估气候，植被和景观格局对鸟类分布和丰度的相对影响。我将研究单个物种以及它们的共同出现模式，我将比较未来的脆弱性与历史人口趋势。模型结果将用于确定保护和研究的高度优先领域。