Multi-scale ensemble modelling of coastal systems in a changing climate

气候变化下沿海系统的多尺度集成建模

• 批准号: FT220100009
• 负责人: A/Prof Kristen Splinter
• 金额: $ 64.87万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT220100009
• 关键词: Multi; scale; ensemble; modelling; coastal

This project aims to incorporate sandy shoreline adaptation by developing a time-varying framework for model ensemble averaging. This will significantly advance our ability to predict shoreline change over a range of management timescales from days to decades along high-value coastlines. This project expects to generate new knowledge in Coastal Engineering using new methods to train models and deliver unprecedented new shoreline data. The expected outcomes are enhanced capacity to predict shoreline change over a range of timescales and a better understanding of how sandy coastlines adapt to future climate variability. This should provide significant benefits by enabling a better assessment of coastal hazards along our high-value coastline.

该项目旨在通过制定一个随时间变化的模型整体平均框架，纳入桑迪海岸线适应。这将大大提高我们的能力，预测海岸线的变化范围内的管理时间尺度从几天到几十年沿着高价值的海岸线。该项目预计将使用新方法来训练模型，并提供前所未有的新海岸线数据，从而产生海岸工程方面的新知识。预期的成果是提高预测一系列时间尺度内海岸线变化的能力，并更好地了解桑迪海岸线如何适应未来的气候变化。这将带来巨大的好处，使我们能够更好地评估沿着我国高价值海岸线的沿海灾害。