Multi-scale ensemble modelling of coastal systems in a changing climate

气候变化下沿海系统的多尺度集成建模

• 批准号: FT220100009
• 负责人: A/Prof Kristen Splinter
• 金额: $ 64.87万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT220100009
• 关键词: Multi; scale; ensemble; modelling; coastal

This project aims to incorporate sandy shoreline adaptation by developing a time-varying framework for model ensemble averaging. This will significantly advance our ability to predict shoreline change over a range of management timescales from days to decades along high-value coastlines. This project expects to generate new knowledge in Coastal Engineering using new methods to train models and deliver unprecedented new shoreline data. The expected outcomes are enhanced capacity to predict shoreline change over a range of timescales and a better understanding of how sandy coastlines adapt to future climate variability. This should provide significant benefits by enabling a better assessment of coastal hazards along our high-value coastline.

该项目旨在通过开发模型集合平均的时变框架来纳入沙质海岸线适应。这将显着提高我们预测高价值海岸线在几天到几十年的一系列管理时间范围内海岸线变化的能力。该项目预计使用新方法训练模型并提供前所未有的新海岸线数据，从而产生海岸工程方面的新知识。预期成果是增强预测一系列时间尺度内海岸线变化的能力，并更好地了解沙质海岸线如何适应未来的气候变化。通过更好地评估我们高价值海岸线的沿海灾害，这应该会带来显着的好处。