Probabilistic climate dynamics: exploring the weather-climate connection

概率气候动力学：探索天气与气候的联系

• 批准号: 249641-2009
• 负责人: Monahan, Adam
• 金额: $ 2.91万
• 依托单位: University of Victoria
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2013-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=524734
• 关键词: Probabilistic; climate; dynamics; exploring; weather

A classic aphorism characterising the difference between weather and climate states that "climate is what you expect, but weather is what you get". This conception is fundamentally probabilistic: the evolution of weather from day to day is seen as the particular path of a turbulent system, while the climate is the probability distribution of all these possible weather paths. Understanding and predicting the climate system involves studying not just the average state, but the strength of variability about the average, asymmetries in this variability, the nature of extreme events, and so forth. The fundamental object of interest is the probability distribution of the climate system.

有一句经典的格言描述了天气和气候之间的区别：“气候是你所期望的，但天气是你所得到的”。 这个概念基本上是概率性的：天气每天的演变被视为湍流系统的特定路径，而气候则是所有这些可能天气路径的概率分布。理解和预测气候系统不仅需要研究平均状态，还需要研究平均状态的变率强度、变率的不对称性、极端事件的性质等等。 感兴趣的基本对象是气候系统的概率分布。