Optimizing future networks of marine protected areas in response to global change by combining genetic connectivity and biophysical models

海洋生物多样性的养护和渔业的可持续性是重大的全球环境和经济挑战。解决这些关切的一个管理工具是发展海洋保护区。尽管海洋保护区有助于渔业管理，但海洋保护区维持区域种群的最佳空间设计仍然存在不确定性，特别是因为捕捞压力和环境条件的变化都可能改变连接模式。鉴于海洋保护区的数量可能大幅增加，如果致力于《生物多样性公约》的缔约方要实现到2020年保护世界10%的海洋的目标，那么在海洋保护区网络内选择新的海洋保护区时，迫切需要有效地衡量人口之间的连通性并将其纳入其中。可靠的连通性衡量标准应包括有关物种扩散能力和遗传分化的数据。然而，目前我们仍然缺乏必要的大规模遗传数据和扩散模型来确定海洋保护区的最佳空间设计，并评估气候变化的影响。在这个项目中，我们结合生物物理海洋学模型、网络连通性模型、遗传-人口模型和基因组学工具来：(I)估计在建立了MPAS网络的两个区域中被开发的四个物种(三种鱼、一种无脊椎动物)的遗传连通性；以及(Ii)比较未来气候变化和捕捞压力对遗传连通性的潜在影响的替代方案。

The conservation of marine biodiversity and the sustainability of fisheries are major global environmental and economic challenges. One management tool that addresses these concerns is the development of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Although MPAs can contribute to the management of fisheries, uncertainties remain about the optimal spatial design of MPAs that will maintain regional populations, especially since changes in fishing pressure and environmental conditions may both alter connectivity patterns. Given that the number of MPAs is likely to increase substantially, if parties committed to the Convention on Biological Diversity are to meet the target of protecting 10% of the world's oceans by 2020, it is becoming urgent to effectively measure and incorporate connectivity between populations in the selection of new MPAs within MPA networks. A reliable measure of connectivity should include both data about species dispersal capacity and genetic differen-tiation. However, at present, we still lack the large-scale genetic data and dispersal models necessary to define optimal spatial design of MPAs, and evaluate the effects of climate change. In this project, we combine biophysical oceanographic models, network connectivity models, genetic-demographic models and genomic tools to: (i) estimate genetic connectivity for four exploited species (three fishes, one invertebrate) in two regions where MPAs networks are established; and (ii) compare alternative scenarios of potential impacts of future climate change and fishing pressure on genetic connectivity.